Rouhani regains presidency

The world in general, and India especially, should be pleased with the re-election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. That he beat his Conservative competitor, Ebrahim Raisi, by a landslide should strengthen his bargaining credentials both at home and abroad since security and foreign policy in Iran is firmly in the hands of conservative agencies close to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The testing times for Iran are bound to continue. US President Donald Trump has surrounded himself with Iran-hating neo-cons. And he has already blessed the Saudi Arabia-led Sunni military alliance which has no love lost for the Shia-majority Iran and its allies such as the Houthis and Bashar al-Assad.

Rouhani’s victory has significance beyond Iran because his conservative rival, Raisi, would have preferred to take Iran’s Western adversaries head on. A confrontationist approach is a sure-fire recipe for more turmoil in an unsettled region, especially when reason, perseverance and forbearance are in short supply on the other side, as is the case currently in the White House. Raisi’s domestic policies of expanded subsidies would have strained the exchequer and the opposition to greater personal freedoms would have stirred discontent among Iran’s Internet savvy youth.

Rouhani's victory means a steady hand on the Iranian tiller. His moderate credentials should ensure that barring the US, the other signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) will be more inclined to ease the sanctions. Rouhani has the mandate to deepen Iran’s integration with the mainstream of global commerce and that means a disincentive for its conservative establishment for extra-regional adventures. For India, Rouhani’s re-election will mean that the plans to develop a linkage to Afghanistan and Central Asia will remain in place.  India was slow off the mark when the JCPoA was signed as the Modi government's focus was on the Arab countries. India should grab the opportunity provided by Rouhani’s re-election to activate plans for greater energy and ties. It will be easier to forge security ties since the Taliban is anathema to both Iran and India. Both countries also share concerns about a Pakistani leading the so-called Sunni military alliance.