Russia’s ‘permanent’ Prez

By the time Vladimir Putin ends his fresh term as President of Russia, he would have controlled the Kremlin for an unprecedented 25 years. A man the West loves to loath, Putin’s years at the rudder have seen Russia making a significant turn from the Europeanism that guided the two terms of Boris Yeltsin’s unpredictable and whimsical rule.  Weary of poverty and lawlessness, Russian welcomed the arrival of Putin but that’s where its relationship with the West plummeted. Apart from Germany, Russia has few friends in the trans-Atlantic alliance and is now at the receiving end of an intense campaign to restrict its area of influence.

India leveraged West’s antagonism towards Putin in a variety of ways, mainly by transfer of high-tech Russian technology and deepening its energy relationship that began only after the end of the Cold War. That window seems to be closing with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CATSA). US President Donald Trump believes the Act is flawed but that perception has not stopped the legislation from casting a shadow on high-end Russian arms export to India such as the S 400 anti-missile defence, the developing trilateral transport partnership between Russia, Iran and India or the burgeoning relationship in oil that has made the Russian Rosneft the biggest FDI investor in India. 

Putin owes his power to the St Petersburg elite whose historical and cultural impetuses push it for a closer relationship with Europe. But the Kremlin now believes that its destiny is with Asia. India has to be creative to address the future problems that may arise from CATSA in order to make the most from Russia’s pivot towards Asia. Despite its dalliance with Pakistan, Russia too is aware that its interests will be better served by a balance between India and the Sino-Pakistan alliance. There is much that suggests Russia may be a declining power. Despite several structural weaknesses, it has always bounced back because of its geopolitical location, resource potential and great power tradition. Russia bez Putina (Russia without Putin) is not yet a foreseeable possibility and India needs to make the most of that.