Setback to BJP in Rajasthan

THE Rajasthan byelection results had the feel of a “triple talaq” to it. The blow, thrice-over, was the most unexpected for the BJP. A victory in the two Lok Sabha byelections in the state should been the crowning glory to the Modi government’s last Union Budget. In the end, neither worked out right. The Budget appears underprepared, meant more to generate headlines. The rap in Rajasthan was more decisive and sharper. The two Lok Sabha constituencies, besides an Assembly seat, that went to the polls in Rajasthan are geographically dispersed. Therefore the contest had the billing of a semi-final before Assembly elections later this year. One was Alwar, the Hindutva crowd’s latest laboratory for communal polarisation where two Muslims were lynched to death and a dozen gau-raksha police stations have come up. 

After the narrow, NOTA-assisted win in Gujarat, the BJP needed to recapture both the seats, one held by a Baba Ramdev associate. Besides the Centre’s twin policy disruptions of demonetisation and GST, CM Vasundhara Raje’s non-governance had queered the pitch; she was often seen engaged in an unseemly power struggle with the RSS and its nominees in the Cabinet. The BJP appears to have convinced itself that the damage from her and from Modi’s political missteps and misplaced priorities was not as bad as was being projected by the Opposition and the media.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi has expectedly termed the Rajasthan verdict as the beginning of the end of the BJP. He is entitled to his view but it is still not clear whether the voter mood has irreversibly soured or the byelection jolt was a wake-up call. In Rajasthan, the BJP has not only paid the price for state-abetted social turbulence, but also for not acting upon its promise of a farm loan waiver. PM Modi needs to heed the voters’ warning about unhonoured promises. Voter preference can shift in rest of BJP’s main catchment area during the 2019 polls if the latest Budget fails to deliver on its promise to ameliorate farm distress and provide quality and universal healthcare and education.