Seismic precursors important for hilly states, says expert

Bhanu P Lohumi

Tribune News Service

Shimla, June 26

With the National Institute of Disaster Management and the Geological Survey of India (GSI) forecasting the possibility of a major earthquake in Uttarakhand and Himachal, the 'short-term precursors' module prepared by renowned seismologist Arun Bapat will minimise the loss of human lives during any such eventuality.

Bapat has prepared a pamphlet about the short-term seismic precursors into Assamese for creating awareness in the state, then Nepalese and for Sikkim.

“If the Himachal Government is interested, I can get it translated into Hindi. The information will be useful in saving lives as it will warn people 12 hours before the earthquake," says Bapat.

Earthquakes of more than 5.5 magnitudes on the Richter scale can be predicted 10 to 12 hours before and people can be warned in advance, says Bapat.

These “seismic precursors” are important for hilly states such as Himachal and Uttarakhand which fall in seismic zone IV and V and the government should take note of it so that people can take precautions and preventive measures to reduce the loss of human lives, though it is difficult to reduce damage to property, said Bapat who has given the precursors.

The states cannot take things lying down as the GSI in its report in 2007 stated that there was 98.6 per cent chances that an earthquake of high intensity (8 magnitude) may hit Uttarakhand and Himachal. Precautions and awareness have become the need of the hour to save precious human lives.

Dr Bapat has surveyed all earthquakes in India from 1967 and made a pamphlet about earthquake precursor which has been found useful in countries such as India, Myanmar, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, Turkey, Iran, Ethiopia and Ecuador.

After deep studies, Bapat has come to a conclusion that about 10 to 12 hours before the earthquake, behaviour of all zoological specimens (animals, reptiles, birds, fishes, insects, etc.) will become abnormal and they will make unusual shrilling and shouting noise. They will become hostile in attitude towards owner or any person approaching the animal.

There could be a rise of about 5 to 7 times more than the daily average rate of deliveries and patients in hospitals and the rise in the number of cases could start about 15 to 20 hours before the earthquake and will continue to rise till earthquake occurs.

The reception on a television set will be disturbed 8 to 10 hours before earthquake and these disturbances will be audio, visual and spectral with a number of disturbances per hour continuously rising till the occurrence of earthquake, says Bapat.

Cellphones will start malfunctioning about 100 to 120 minutes before earthquake and may become non-functional during the same duration before earthquake. The wireless communication of the police, the Army, airport and fire brigade will be disturbed 15 hours before earthquake and the transmitted signals will not be received or received at the designated frequency.

It will be better to know the distance range of seismic precursors. For an earthquake of magnitude 6 to 7, these precursors could be observed up to a distance of about 250 to 350 km. For an earthquake of magnitude 7 and above, seismic precursors could be observed up to 400 to 500 km or so.

Advising the government regarding the indications, Bapat said: “If all precursors are extensively observed over a large area, the people could expect earthquake within the specified duration and shut all electrical, water, gas connections in the house and come in open space”.

These suggestions in the pamphlet can be translated and printed in local language and pamphlets may be distributed. The same may also be broadcast over radio and telecast over television. The system of SMS and MMS may also be used.