Why BJP went public with Dhumal as CM face just 8 days before HP polls

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, October 31

That BJP chief Amit Shah believed his announcement today will not just clear air among “confused cadre” but also pep up the party's prospects in Himachal was the key reason why he today announced former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal as BJP's lead player in November-9 Assembly elections.

The BJP has been contemplating on the tricky issue for quite some time now, at least the past six months or so now. It has been keeping everyone guessing on whether it will follow the “Assam model” (the only successful example of BJP winning with a pre-announced CM candidate) or go with the tested and tried formula — that is playing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name.

While indications were all there, the final decision was reached as late as yesterday when the party core committee met in presence of Shah. The general consensus, sources say, was that factionalism apart, announcing Dhumal’s will improve the BJP’s prospects in the hill state.

Besides, the Prime Minister is arriving in the state to address election rallies on November 2, 4 and 5 and Shah wanted “everything settled with clarity and no questions in the minds of cadre” before that.

Otherwise, there was no reason why he would have chosen to make the critical announcement just eight days before the elections. 

However, sources say that while factionalism in the state leadership is a factor that cannot be discounted but at this stage there is very little that "upset" constituents can achieve.

“Factionalism is there otherwise there is no reason why Shah waited so long to make the announcement. Everyone knew Sarbanand Sonowal will be the CM face for Assam weeks before,” they say.

However, there were many reasons why Dhumal had an edge over others in the fray for the top post. 

Having completed 73 years, the veteran BJP leader has just about a year-and-a-half to go before he attains the “cut-off limit” of 75 years the new leadership has set for ministerial assignments. But given his "popularity at grass roots", BJP’s internal assessments indicated better chances for the party with him in the lead.

Besides, the Prime Minister, who is believed to share a “special rapport” with Dhumal given his past connection with Himachal as an office-bearer, was always in his favour. The sources claim, he had been “sounded” about the plan.

Also, contrary to the perception that Dhumal was shifted from his original seat “to cut him to size”, the sources say he was allocated the new constituency so that he could influence a larger region.

So far as the “age factor” is concerned, party leaders say “such provisions” are designed to improve party’s prospects and not damage them. Shah himself indicated a few months back that there was no such hard and fast rule, meaning the 75-year bar can be used as per party's requirements.