Explainer: Why BJP is flying solo in Punjab and Odisha

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, March 28

As on date, the BJP-led NDA is a formidable alliance with big players like JD(U) and Shiv Sena (Shinde group) and multiple caste-based small parties. 

However, while the BJP juggernaut has managed to get on board “influencers” like JD(U) and key leaders from the opposition camp in the run up to 2024 Lok Sabha election, it has not been able to stitch alliances with its “oldest” ally Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and “friendly” opposition party BJD in Odisha, with whom it has had past associations with.

‘Natural allies’  

Though reasons for alliance-talks breakdown can be multiple, the main being differences on seat-sharing issue, however, in the case of Punjab and Odisha there may be some interesting strategic factors as well, say observers.

Apart from the fact that the majority of state leaders in both states were not in favour of the alliance, the fact is both BJD and Akali Dal are “natural allies” of the BJP, they have been together in the past and can come together again in future if need be, they add.

Squeezing out Congress

Plus, by coming together they may also have ended up ceding valuable opposition space to Congress. 

As far as Punjab is concerned, with senior leaders from other parties on board the BJP believes it is in a better place to fly solo in the state than ever before, especially with Akali Dal working on mending its traditional vote bank and backing farmers' issues.

This will be the first Lok Sabha elections when two former allies will contest separately.

In 2019 Punjab was the only state in North India to withstand the proverbial “Narendra Modi wave”.

The Congress won as many as eight of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the border state and allies Akali Dal and BJP two each. AAP won the remaining one seat

With more than two months to go for the voting day in Punjab on June 1, the BJP believes there is plenty of time to spread word, especially with sitting Ludhiana MP, Congress’ Ravneet Singh Bittu, and AAP’s sitting Jalandhar MP Sushil Kumar Rinku joining the ranks. “More will come, today the BJP is in a better position with reach beyond urban spaces in Punjab,” claim party leaders.

BJP and Akali Dal fighting separately has turned Punjab into a four-cornered contest with AAP and Congress making up the other two parties.

The bottom line here is, a multi-cornered contest largely suits BJP.

Safe-guarding opposition space

By coming together, for example in Odisha, BJD and BJP may also have ceded the precious opposition space to Congress. By not allying, they can work on squeezing out Congress all together, pushing it to third spot, especially in the Assembly elections. 

Observers say this is the primary reason why despite all the bonhomie between the top leadership, Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and main opposition BJP are fighting the simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections separately. 

Two “natural allies” fighting separately will deny Congress the advantage of claiming the entire opposition space, which may have proved detrimental in Assembly elections. 

Although the vote share of the Congress in Odisha is on a decline, a BJP-BJD alliance may have helped it become the principal opposition.

‘Natural allies’, post-election tie-ups

They may be rivals now but like the Akali Dal, BJD has also fought Lok Sabha and Assembly elections with BJP in the past. 

Observers also talk of a “special relationship” between Naveen Patnaik and Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he was the chief minister of Gujarat.

Naveen Patnaik entered electoral politics after the death of his father Biju Patnaik in 1997. After the Janata Dal split, he formed the BJD and also joined the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government as a Union Minister. 

In 2000, the BJD and the BJP formed a coalition government with Patnaik as the chief minister. In fact Patnaik fought three Lok Sabha polls—1998, 1999 and 2004—and two Assembly elections—2000 and 2004—with the BJP. Therefore if after elections it goes with the BJP, it will not be surprising. 

The killing of Australian national Graham Staines and his two sons involved in carrying out “missionary” activities “without consent” was the beginning of communal troubles in Odisha that peaked with the 2008 Kandhamal riots. 

In those terms the BJD-BJP break-up in 2009 is attributed to the incidents that followed the killing of right wing leader Lakshmananda Saraswati.

Patnaik’s image as a secular leader took a beating after thousands fled villages and took shelter in relief camps. The incidents seem to have prompted him to part ways with the BJP along with other factors,” say observers.

Since then Patnaik has been contesting separately and also managing a majority in Assembly without any help. 

However, despite drifting away from BJP and the NDA, he also stayed away from the Congress-led UPA. More recently, he also stayed away from the INDIA bloc formed by opposition parties to take on BJP and PM Modi in the coming elections.

Rather, he has been helping the BJP and PM Modi in the centre, especially after the 2019 elections, aiding those clear controversial legislations, including those directly related to BJP’s core agenda and ideology.

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