Lok Sabha election: As country gears up for phase 2, a key question remains the voter turnout

Tribune Web Desk

Chandigarh, April 25

As the country gears up for phase 2 of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it will be on the mind of analysts whether the turnout on Friday will showcase the enthusiasm of voters or lack of it like it had in the phase 1 polling.

The first phase covering 102 seats across 21 states saw the voter turnout of around 62 per cent, which, according to some analysts, was “a conclusive evidence of absence of any wave and voter fatigue”.

Since it is believed to be a sign of anti-incumbency against the ruling party, sometimes a high voter turnout is also read as a positive sign for opposition parties. As per some political pundits, anger against the ruling party may encourage more voters to vote. 

However, the counter to this is that high voter turnout can also be a reflection of people favouring the party in power and an expression of support in its favour.

The bottom line is it is hard to establish a relationship between the turnout and factors like anti-incumbency or fatigue.

Phase 2 elections

The second phase of voting for the 18th Lok Sabha elections will see people in 89 constituencies across 13 states,  including Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Rajasthan, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu & Kashmir, elect their MPs.

They include Karnataka (14 seats), Kerala (20), Assam (5), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (3), Madhya Pradesh (7), Maharashtra (8), Uttar Pradesh (8), Rajasthan (13), and West Bengal (3). 

After the polling on Friday, elections will be over in Kerala and Rajasthan.

States to watch out    

Kerala, which will vote in a single phase on April 26 unlike states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal with multiple poll dates, is definitely an interesting state to watch out  

The BJP has never opened an account in Kerala, a state dominated by Congress and Left parties.    

There are 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala of which Alathur and Mavelikara are reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting to retain Wayanad in Kerala.

Karnataka, BJP’s only southern bastion, will also be polling tomorrow. The key constituencies there include Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South, Mandya and Mysore.

Bihar, where five constituencies Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Bhagalpur, and Banka are polling, is another interesting state with Congress and RJD pitched against BJP-JD-U.

In Chhattisgarh, voting will be held for Rajnandgaon, Mahasamund, and Kanker and all eyes are on Rajnandgaon, a saffron stronghold, where former chief minister and Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel is contesting against BJP’s Santosh Pandey.

Interesting constituencies

Rahul Gandhi, the sitting MP, is re-contesting to retain Wayanad. However, this time he is facing a formidable challenge in the shape of CPI’s Annie Raja and BJP’s K Surendran. In 2019, Gandhi had won the seat with a margin of over four lakh votes.

BJP's Arun Govil has made Meerut in Uttar Pradesh an interesting constituency. The saffron party replaced its multiple-time MP Rajendra Agarwal to pitch the actor famous for portraying Lord Rama in Ramayan TV series. Govil is contesting against BSP’s Devvrat Kumar Tyagi and SP’s Sunita Verma.

In Mathura, veteran actor Hema Malini is contesting to retain the seat she has been representing since 2014. She is contesting against Congress’s Mukesh Dhangar

In Rajasthan, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla is fighting to retain his Kota Bundi seat for the third consecutive time. Also in the fray is Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in Jodhpur and former chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav Gehlot in Jalore.

Other faces to watch out for are BJP's Tejasvi Surya, the sitting MP in Bangalore South, against Congress’ Sowmya Reddy and Congress’ Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.

Holding the Thiruvananthapuram seat since 2009, Tharoor is pitted against Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar and CPI’s Pannyan Raveendran in these elections.

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