China won’t go for an all out war, says ex-Army officer

Deepkamal Kaur

Tribune News Service

Jalandhar, July 27

Having served with the Army at the Indo-China border for seven years and remained India’s Defence attache in China for three years, Major General (retd) GG Dwivedi is of the strong view that China is just trying to browbeat India and that it will not go for an all out war.

Being the co-author of a book on Indo-China war and knowing the Chinese psyche and political scenario well, Maj Gen Dwivedi cites five reasons, “The stability of China depends on economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping came to power on an assurance of providing a prosperous and powerful environment which he has to maintain. A war can destabilise the Chinese government and if the communists he represents go out of power, the changeover will be violent and Xi might even be jailed. China is only a bully. It won’t act as the Communist Party has even announced its annual congress in October. Also, the main issue as of now is over constructing 4 to 5 km of road. Hell won’t break loose if this road is not completed. So, even the stakes are not high for a war to be waged.”

Interacting at KMV College campus here (he is the husband of college principal Dr Atima Sharma Dwivedi), Maj Gen Dwivedi holds a view contrary to various organisations seeking a ban on Chinese products. “Our country’s traders want the cheapest products for a good sale. We must understand that economic interests are different from the political ones. Being a professor at Aligarh University, I know how the Chinese locks have thrown the local locks of Aligarh out of market. Their special economic zones (SEZ) are as big as the whole of Jalandhar. We must also realise that the private sector is not under the government. Even if the government intends to ban China-made items, these would be smuggled to India. Even if we increase the duty on Chinese products to discourage their import, there will be a way. These items will start flowing in through Dubai. For the same reason, our Indo-China sports events are continuing to take place. We must realise that 4Cs – cooperation, competition, confrontation and conflict – go on simultaneously.”

Giving a clear perception on various issues, he said, “Our President is only for giving a salute. The Chinese President is an operation commander. They do not have the MoD and their Defence Minister is a serving General. So, there is no dichotomy between the political aims and the military strategy, which remains an issue with India.”

Discussing the reason over the sharp rhetoric coming from the Chinese side, the Army officer, who retired in 2009, said, “Unlike our media which is free, the Chinese media is controlled by the government. They use various people including the university authorities as their mouthpiece. That is why, they seem to be more assertive.”

Comparing China with India, the Armyman-turned-professor says, “They are geographically at least three times bigger than us. We have a 2.2 trillion economy while theirs is 11 trillion. With a trade of 4 trillion, they are well ahead of us. They also have a 2.2 million strong military but that does not mean that we cannot defend ourselves. We can turn the tables if we align with the US and Japan, with whom we have good relations. Our relations with Bhutan is also strategically very important for us.”

The retired Army officer has served at the Chinese border in his capacity as a Division Commander for two years, as Battalion Commander for three years and as a young officer for two years. Besides, he has done his double MPhil on China and the Asia-Pacific. He has also co-authored a book, “1962 war: A view from the other side”.