60 lakh people of state living in high-risk seismic Zone V

Sumit Hakhoo

Tribune News Service

Jammu, May 24

Nearly 60 lakh people in Jammu and Kashmir live in the high-risk seismic Zone V and a high-intensity earthquake in the state, as predicted by American geologists, could have devastating results.

The total population of the state is 1.25 crore as per the 2011 Census.

The major worry is that the high-intensity earthquake could spell doom in Jammu and Srinagar cities as they have a high concentration of population and rapid unplanned construction of commercial buildings and houses.

As per a government report, most parts of the Kashmir valley, including Doda, Ramban and Kishtwar in the Jammu region, come under the seismic Zone V. Around 50 per cent of the population of the state lives in this area. The rest of the state, including the Ladakh region, are under the seismic Zone IV.

Experts say that in case of a high-intensity quake in the state, the zoning pattern will have little meaning as the entire population is vulnerable, adding that if proper plans are made, precious lives and infrastructure could be saved.

Further, J&K is not considered anymore a seismic locked area, a term coined by geologists in view of the dormant plate activity in the state, as the entire Himalayan region has been experiencing increased seismic activity in recent years.

As per the term, a locked fault means equal resistance exerted by two faults. As far as the Reasi fault mentioned by American scientists is considered, geologists in J&K have expressed concern as it has remained dormant for decades, silently waiting to release its energy to overcome the stress.

“Quakes cannot be predicted but a major earthquake in the state is long overdue. We need a robust disaster management planning, checking unplanned construction and creating awareness among the people to avoid the damage. We are also studying the seismic activity in the state through monitoring stations established after 2005,” said Prof GM Bhat, senior geologist at the University of Jammu.

Though a detailed disaster management report was submitted to the state government about two years ago, not much has been done to create a mechanism to deal with the man-made or natural disasters, nor is there any check on illegal construction in cities and towns of the state.

In October 2005, when a 7.6-magnitude earthquake hit Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), more than 80,000 people were killed in PoK while around 1,000 people died in J&K. Since then, the state has been hit by many earthquakes and their epicentre has been in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan.

“We are organising routine awareness programmes for students and citizens to prepare them for any natural calamity but what we need is a check on illegal construction and upgrade of medical facilities,” said Alok Nanda, a disaster management expert.

After the devastating earthquake that hit the parts of the state in October 2005, an international workshop of geoscientists, organised by the State Geology and Mining Department, had urged the state to establish seismological observatories for monitoring seismic activities on a regular basis.

With the help of the Union Ministry of Earth Science and the Jammu varsity, a network of broadband seismograph was established at Kupwara, Poonch, Uri, Dooru and Bani in 2009 and has been operational since then.