Gilgit polls fraught with dangers for India

Arun Joshi

Tribune News Service

The Assembly polls in Gilgit-Baltistan have much wider ramifications than merely the queuing up of voters outside polling booths and electing their lawmakers. Pakistan is seeking to legitimise its illegal occupation of the area where Islamabad has drastically changed the demography and trampled upon the strikingly distinct cultural, ethnic and religious identities of the people of the stunningly beautiful region in the Himalayas.

Pakistan is embarking on something bigger and a confrontationist approach towards India on borders. The recent incidents of Pakistan shelling Indian posts near the LOC and the international border, and fostering anti-India demonstrations in Kashmir are evidence of that. Further doubts about its intentions have been dispelled by Pakistan’s hawkish army chief General Raheel Sharif, who declared today that “Kashmir is inseparable from Pakistan”.

Gilgit-Baltistan was part of undivided state of Jammu and Kashmir, which acceded to India in 1947. The elections were announced on May 23, a month after the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CEPC) was inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jiping. The CEPC threatens the strategic interests of India.

Pakistan is holding polls for the 24 Assembly segments in Gilgit-Baltistan on June 8. The polls will be conducted with the help of eight units of the Pakistani army, more than 5,500 officers, according to the Election Commissioner Justice (retd) Syed Muhammad Tahir Ali Shah. Each and every booth would be under the surveillance of the Pakistan army and the voters would have to go by the diktats of the army.

The reports emanating from Skardu in Gilgit and reaching Kargil on this side of the LoC suggest that this is a military exercise of Pakistan, by Pakistan and for Pakistan. The role of the natives of the place is minimal.

Gilgit-Baltistan, an area rich in resources, is part of undivided Jammu and Kashmr. But since 1947, this area has been under the illegal occupation of Pakistan. The demography of the area has been drastically changed as Pakistan has settled many of its citizens there, overwhelming the natives.

Chinese troops are active there. Apart from the latest China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that has raised strategic and economic concerns, the People’s Liberation Army men have been active there since 2009, which has been reported extensively by the international media.

The number of PLA troops is around 11,000 and the presence of Pakistani troops is many times more in the area with a population of around one million.

India’s passive diplomacy on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and the silent mode that it adopted when the trans-Himalayan region (Gilgit-Baltistan) of 72,972 sqkm was declared autonomous by Pakistan in 2009 has brought about this situation. 

India’s passive diplomacy is an irritant for the people in Jammu, whose ancestors had extended the boundaries of Jammu and Kashmir to the trans-Himalayas in the mid-19th century.

The meek response of the MEA over the Chinese presence seems to have emboldened Pakistan to go in for the charade of holding elections in Gilgit-Baltistan. But these polls have wider ramifications for the entire South Asian region as this would embolden Pakistan-China combine to go in for more such political and military adventures. 

The Pakistan People’s Party government had granted autonomy to Gilgit-Baltistan in 2009 as a sequel to Pakistan’s military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s seven-region formula, which later was reduced to five regions. Gilgit-Baltistan from the northern areas were transformed to a province and now the June 8 elections under the shadow of Pakistan army’s guns would be the beginning for something more adventurous — politically, militarily and diplomatically.