Rudraprayag quake alarms J&K geologists

Sumit Hakhoo

Tribune News Service

Jammu, December 8

Every time an earthquake hits the Himalayas, there is a palpable tension among geologists and disaster management experts in Jammu and Kashmir as the state falls in seismic Zone IV and Zone V. These two zones are highly prone to earthquakes.

A 5.5-magnitude earthquake hit Rudraprayag, Uttarakhand, on December 6 while a 5.1-magnitude tremor was detected in the remote Ladakh area of J&K bordering China on the wee hours of December 7 which rattled some areas of the Kashmir valley.

Although the entire mountain belt from the Hindukush and greater Himalayas to Uttarakhand have become seismically active in recent years, scientists continues to remain worried about the Reasi fault line, which has an enormous amount pent up energy that has not been released for decades. In simple scientific terms, a high intensity earthquake having an epicentre on the fault line is long overdue.

According to historical accounts and research carried out by geologists, the last major recorded earthquake having intensity of 8 magnitude on the Richter scale with epicentre within the Himalayan belt of state was in 1555 AD. An earthquake of 7 or 8 magnitude on the Richter scale recurs in the cycle of 100, 200 and 500 years.

“Our studies have shown that the rock structures in the Reasi fault line along the Pir Panjal range are able to absorb energy generated by seismic activity for centuries. But for how long they can able to withstand pressure, we don’t know”, said Prof GM Bhat, an earthquake researcher with Jammu University. At present, he is Rector at the Bhaderwah campus of university.

The October 2005 earthquake of 7.6-magnitude was biggest in the recent memory. Its epicentre was in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

“We are closely monitors seismic activity from the Hindukush to the greater Himalayas but prediction of an earthquake is very difficult science. Beds of sedimentary rock formation south of Reasi towards Jammu are acting like sponges. However, energy still needs an escape route to ease this accumulating pressure. An earthquake of high intensity is long overdue,” said Naveen Hakhoo, a geologist at Jammu University.

With the help of Union Ministry of Earth Science and Jammu University since 2005, a network of Broad Band Seismograph was established at Kupwara, Poonch, Uri, Dooru and Bani, which is operational since 2009 to monitor underground activities.

“Keeping in view the vulnerabilities, we have been advising and organising awareness programmes at every district regularly. However, a lot more needs to be done and involvement of social, political and administrative machinery is also required,” said Alok Nanda, a disaster management expert.

What records say

• According to historical accounts and research carried out by geologists, the last major recorded earthquake having intensity of 8 magnitude on the Richter scale with epicentre within the Himalayan belt of state was in 1555 
• An earthquake of 7 or 8 magnitude on the Richter scale recurs in the cycle of 100, 200 and 500 years.