''Hardik factor'': Is BJP contemplating a Patidar CM face for Gujarat

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, November 19

In high-stakes Gujarat, while the BJP contends the situation “very much under control” apparently it is “not quite how its top leadership would have preferred it to be”.

A reason why there are now speculations that party chief Amit Shah may be having a change of heart over his original plan to go with incumbent Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as the BJP’s face in the coming elections.

In fact, BJP leaders directly involved with assimilating ground inputs say “as on date and in given circumstances, the BJP appears to be winning between 105 and 122 seats” in the 182-member Assembly. “Perhaps around 115 seats but not 150 as leaders have been projecting. But there are still 20 days to go (for first phase), anything can happen,” they say. 

The main reason for this is the hype and the hullabaloo around this young Patidar leader called Hardik Patel.

Interestingly, while the BJP leadership is trying to get him by their side, or so claim the local sources, Hardik Patel’s one-point agenda is reservation for his community, which makes it kind of tough for any negotiations to fructify. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, they say, is against any kind of reservation. So that leaves for the BJP the only other plausible solution and which is projecting a clear-cut Patidar leader as its CM face. Those in contention for the job could be Deputy CM Nitin Patel, Union minister Purushottam Rupala and state president Jitu Vaghani. 

What may go favour of Nitin Patel are the number of MLAs supporting him. While the first list of 70 candidates released on Friday had as many as 18 Patidar candidates, the list of 36 released yesterday also had many from the community (around 13, some local leaders claim).

While the main rival Congress is struggling to find consensus on issues, taking the lead the BJP has so far announced 106 candidates for the elections to be held in two phases — December 9 and 14. The second list for 36 constituencies includes 14 reserved seats, 12 ST and two SC candidates.

It is expected that the remaining names may be announced around Tuesday. Though they constitute only around 13 per cent of the vote-share, Patidars have the power to influence a much larger base (some claim 70 to 80 per cent) due to their hold on the business in the state. 

Apart from the Hardik Patel factor, there seem to be other reasons troubling the BJP leadership. Disgruntlement among rural areas and farmers and the GST seems to be some of them. “What goes in our (BJP) favour is the TINA (there is no other alternative) factor. Independent surveys indicate disenchantment because of several reasons. As on date, the BJP is winning Gujarat but not with the numbers befitting the reputation of Prime Minister and Shah,” they say.

Shah has said the elections are being contested under the leadership of incumbents Vijay Rupani and Nitin Patel. Normally, the BJP goes with the incumbent in the state it is in power so that makes the claim of Vijay Rupani higher.

However, opting for a Patidar CM candidate would not just stump Hardik Patel and also main rival Congress, which does not have a strong leader from the community to take charge of the situation.

Local leaders expect the Prime Minister to make a formal announcement on the issue of CM face next he addresses a public rally in Gujarat. Notably, chief minister before and after Narendra Modi was in the chair were both Patidars — Keshubhai Patel and Anandiben Patel.

After Anandiben’s resignation it was expected that Nitin Patel, who was then the Finance Minister, would take charge but the BJP chose Rupani, which is again believed to have caused a lot of heartburn among the community.