After ''weak'' phase, monsoon likely to revive next week: IMD

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, June 21

Amid concerns over “unusual” patterns this season affecting its performance and end-of-June arrival date over the Northwest, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to revive around June 24.

While the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to hold on to its June-12 position, passing through Thane, Ahmednagar, Buldhana, Amravati, Gondia, Titlagarh, Cuttack, Midnapore, Goalpara and Baghdogra (exactly where it was when it entered the weak phase) the IMD is now predicting a change in situation around June 24.

Predicting widespread rains along the west coast, northeast and east, it has also forecast fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls over south and central India, isolated to scattered rains over the Northwest and heavy falls over East Uttar Pradesh between June 26 and 28.

According to the latest update by India's official weather forecaster, monsoon circulation is likely to improve from around June 24 due to “expected movement of active phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) to west Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea during next two to three days and development of cyclonic circulations over Eastern India leading to strengthening of easterlies winds over Gangetic plains”

As a result, the Monsoon is likely to further advance over remaining parts of Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh between June 23 and 25

According to the IMD, monsoon could not advance further since last one week due to weak current in association with weak cross equatorial flow, unfavourable location of active phase MJO, an equatorial eastwards propagating oscillations which lay over central and east Pacific Ocean, Western Hemisphere and Africa and development of low pressure system over northwest Pacific Ocean—all very technical terms largely denoting wind patterns across the globe.

MJO in specific is an Eastward moving western disturbance and unlike standing pattern like the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , a traveling pattern influencing rainfall patterns over regions it touches while circling the globe

As country waits its revival, there are concerns over “unusual” behaviour patterns observed around the monsoon current this year. Its initial movement towards the mainland was affected by the twin cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Seas on both sides of the Indian peninsula play a crucial role in its flow and two back-to-back cyclonic storms (Sagar and Mekunu) in the Arabian Sea, attributed to climate change, were considered an exception in the run-up.

Later the weather system that brought rains to Kerala around May-end moved away from mainland to rains over Central parts of the Arabian Sea. This in itself was considered unusual as largely the circulations move inland and not outward towards the sea

Though speaking to The Tribune on June 12, Dr DS Pai of the Pune-based Climate Prediction at Climate Research Division of IMD had said monsoon would revive in the last week to 10 days of June and bring normal rains over the region.