BJP eyes post-Jayalalithaa vacuum in Tamil Nadu politics

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, December 6

While it may be still too early for any long-term predictions, the big changes expected in the Tamil Nadu's AIADMK and DMK-dominated politics post-Jayalalithaa could throw up some interesting options for other political parties, including the BJP. 

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The saffron party has been trying to make inroads in the state dominated by Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK and M. Karunanidhi’s DMK for some time now. The political vacuum created by Jayalalithaa’s death has provided the BJP a better chance to emerge as a “natural choice” in the deeply religious state, which its leaders believe is a good ground for Hindutva brand of politics.

For the time being though, the BJP-ruled Centre would like to see the AIADMK, which got re-elected to power just so very recently, complete its five-year run, without any hiccups or disintegrating into pieces, courtesy the rival, DMK.

Starved of leaders and looking for ways to increase footprint in the state, a status quo serves the BJP’s interests best, for now, or so some political observers believe.

There are many reasons for that. Jayalalithaa shared a certain rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi but for the BJP the numbers her party holds in the Parliament are also very importance.

To keep her in good humour, the government also gave senior AIADMK leader M Thambidurai the post of deputy Speaker of Lok Sabha. The AIADMK has 37 MPs in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha and the BJP needs these numbers not just to pursue the legislative business in the Parliament but also important events — like elections of the President and the Vice-President, next year.

Post-Jayalalithaa, the BJP expects the AIADMK government to move closer to it, primarily because of survival compulsions. With the DMK watching over him like a hawk, the new incumbent O Panneerselvam would require all the help from the Centre and the BJP to ward of impending threat of disintegration in the AIADMK. This even as some political observers are giving the AIADMK “just about a couple of months, maybe” in the absence of a charismatic binder like Jayalalithaa.

With Jayalalithaa gone, there is now a possibility of some AIADMK leaders shifting base to other parties, including the BJP.

The saffron party may have managed a seat in the Lok Sabha but it failed miserably in the 2016 Assembly elections. In 2014, as well as in 2016, the BJP tried its best to get Jayalalithaa on-board the NDA —attempts she resolutely spurned.

For the next elections it could certainly do with stronger candidates and good back-up support. Notably, throughout her illness BJP leaders continuously visited Amma in the hospital, apparently to be perceived a "favourable" by her cadres.