BJP faces tough battle in north Gujarat : The Tribune India

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BJP faces tough battle in north Gujarat

AHMEDABAD: Barring a “Modi magic”, the BJP is unlikely to have an easy passage in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah’s “home within home”, the north Gujarat region which had caused the ruling party a setback in the last elections even when Modi was the chief minister.

BJP faces tough battle in north Gujarat

PM Narendra Modi holds a sword presented by his supporters during an election campaign meeting ahead of the second phase of Gujarat Assembly elections, in Nadiad, December 11. Reuters



Manas Dasgupta

Tribune News Service

Ahmedabad, December 11

Barring a “Modi magic”, the BJP is unlikely to have an easy passage in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah’s “home within home”, the north Gujarat region which had caused the ruling party a setback in the last elections even when Modi was the chief minister.

The setback for the BJP in north Gujarat region in 2012, when the situation was considered to be conducive for the ruling party, was surprising because it was expected that success for the third consecutive term for Modi, their “son of the soil”, would make him a strong contender within the BJP for staking claim for prime ministership in the 2014 Parliamentary elections.

It did happen but such a prospect still failed to excite the voters of his home region then.

Modi hails from Vadnagar in Mehsana district, the hotbed of the “Patidar movement” for reservation benefits, while Amit Shah is from Modasa in Sabarkantha district.

But neither of them ever contested any election from there. Modi’s introduction to the electoral politics was from Rajkot West from where he shifted to Maninagar in Ahmedabad city and then to Vadodara in central Gujarat and Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh for the Parliamentary elections.

Amit Shah all along contested from different seats in Ahmedabad city in the Assembly elections. Ahmedabad city has remained a BJP citadel for the last two decades or so.

Though Mehsana had earned the distinction of having elected one of the two BJP MPs from all over the country when the entire party was wiped out in the sympathy vote after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, the north Gujarat region was traditionally a Congress stronghold till it changed from the days of the 2002 communal riots.

While most other parts of the state remained unaffected in the aftermath of the Godhra train carnage, the north Gujarat region witnessed the worst kind of communal riots and surprisingly for the first time the tribals in the region joined in launching vicious attacks on the minorities, though other parts of the vast tribal belt stretching from Bulsar in south Gujarat to Banaskantha in north through the Panchamahals and Dahod districts in central Gujarat remained peaceful.

In north Gujarat, the tribals mainly worked as land labourers in the fields owned by upper castes due to which perhaps they were forced to join in the attack on the minorities.

The undercurrent of the “Hindutva” wave that started from 2002 was clearly visible in the 2007 elections also when the BJP romped home with 38 of the 53 seats in seven districts in the region, including Ahmedabad which alone accounted for 21 seats, but the 2009 Parliamentary elections saw return of the tribals to the Congress fold.

The last state Assembly elections in 2012 witnessed considerable erosion of the BJP base in the region in terms of both the number of seats and vote share.

While the number of seats dropped to 32 with 21 going to the Congress, the BJP suffered about two per cent loss in vote share directly benefitting the Congress.

But for Ahmedabad city and district, which strongly backed the BJP better than even in 2007, the ruling party would have suffered even heavier damage in the region.

The Patel reservation agitation which started from Mehsana and spread to other parts of the state has further complicated the situation for the BJP in the current election.

With both OBC Manch convenor Alpesh Thakor, who has since joined the Congress, and Dalit face Jignesh Mevani, who is also contesting the elections from this region, the OBC and Dalit agitations are also likely to impact the BJP’s fortunes.

In addition, the recent heavy floods in the Banaskantha and Patan districts with the affected complaining of government’s failure to provide them timely relief has also become a major election issue.

The BJP is trying to counter it by launching an anti-Congress tirade that its elected representatives had “run away” to the comforts of a luxurious resort in Bengaluru when the flood-hit people in north Gujarat were fighting for their lives.

The insinuation was directed at the political tussle going on at that time over Ahmed Patel, the political secretary to Sonia Gandhi, fighting for the Rajya Sabha elections and flew away 43 Congress MLAs to Bengaluru for protecting them against alleged poaching by the BJP.

The BJP is also seeking votes in the name of the Sujalam-Sufalam and the Narmada projects which have substantially improved the irrigation potential in the region where depleting subsoil water level had always been a serious matter of concern for the farmers and the governments owing to “overuse” since the region perennially was a drought-hit area.

It was from here in Mehsana and Visnagar that Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti convenor Hardik Patel and his team began the reservation agitation in July, 2015, and in response Alpesh Thakor mobilised vast sections of OBCs to send warning signals to the government against tampering with the existing reservations model.

The Congress is pinning its hopes on consolidation of Patel-OBC-Dalit votes, primarily due to unprecedented support to the three youngsters – Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani, all the three drawing large crowds to their rallies.

While Patels dominate the political landscape in Mehsana, Visnagar and Viramgam, Thakors play a key role in Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Patan, Arvalli, Gandhinagar and Mehsana districts.

If the young Troika, particularly Hardik, who led a massive road show in the city, can make any difference in Ahmedabad, it would be a huge bonus for the Congress.

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