Monsoon enters weak phase, IMD stands by its forecast for Northwest

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 12

Southwest monsoon may be entering into a weak phase, but this is not expected to affect its onset dates over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi or other parts of the Northwest India, says the IMD

Dr DS Pai, head of Pune- based Climate Prediction at Climate Research Division of IMD, told The Tribune that monsoon will revive in the last week to 10 days of June and that the IMD continued to stand by its prediction of normal rains over the region.

According to Pai, monsoon entering into a weak phase was a normal phenomenon.

It is the characteristic of monsoon that it travels in pulses.

This characteristic helps monsoon cover all parts of the country. If this does not happen, the reach of the ongoing pulse would have stopped around central India.  

As per our weather models, the next pulse is expected around last week to 10 days of June and that is when the monsoon will revive in the mainland. Till then, it will remain in weak phase.

Amid apprehensions that the weak phase may delay the onset of monsoon in some parts, Pai said it was because of this very situation and a low pressure that Northeast and neighbouring Bangladesh will get good rains.

Onset over Northwest is expected around its normal date (June 29) give or take two to three days. Generally the subsequent pulse is stronger, said Pai.

This is how it generally happens, he added

Meanwhile, it is wait and watch.

According to the IMDs latest bulletin, monsoon has further advanced into some more parts parts of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Chhattisgarh, most parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, some parts of Gangetic-West Bengal and some more parts of Assam and Meghalaya.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Thane (including Mumbai), Ahmednagar, Buldhana, Amraoti, Gondia, Bhavanipatna, Puri, Kolkata, Sohra and North Lakhimpur.

Conditions are becoming favourable for its further advance into some more parts of  Odisha, remaining parts of Northwest Bay of Bengal and Northeastern States and some parts of West Bengal and Sikkim during next 48 hours. There after no further advance likely during next one week due to probable weakening of monsoon flow.