No ''big bang'' arrival for monsoon this year

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 27

As India continues to reel under severe heat wave conditions, there is some bad news on the monsoon front as well. Though the much-awaited seasonal rain will hit the Indian mainland in Kerala around May 30, the arrival is not likely to be “big bang” event with strong torrential rains generally associated with the coming of a strong monsoon pulse.

IMD’s head of long-range forecasting D Sivananda Pai says the first pulse will be of “weak nature” that will remain restricted to the west coast in Kerala and Karnataka. In other words, the rain in the first phase will be light to moderate and interiors of the South Peninsula along with Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh may have to wait for the next pulse to get their share of rain.

Though the Kerala’ onset will change the weather pattern and provide blistering southern parts the much-needed respite from the severe heat wave conditions.    

Meanwhile, independent forecasters are also predicting a lull of eight to 10 days in monsoon progress after the initial onset. According to Mahesh Palawat of Skymet, monsoon will be delayed over Mumbai and Central India. “Though its Arabian Sea arm is active, the Bay of Bengal arm is expected to remain subdued till mid-June,” he said.

Northwest will receive relief around June 2 with the arrival of a strong Western disturbance. Over the past few days, the region has remained devoid of a weather system—either a WD or any other cyclonic circulation—which could have helped change existing southwesterly wind direction. 

The fear is that relentless hot and dry conditions may plunge affected states into a drought-like situation before the arrival of monsoon, which in itself is a cause of worry this year.