Second half of monsoon to see ‘weak’ rainfall: IMD

New Delhi, Aug 3

India Meteorological Department has predicted that monsoon is likely to weaken over the next two months.

The department predicts that the country will receive 90 per cent rainfall in August — which is below normal — adding that the El-Nino phenomenon has strengthened to moderate between April to July and is likely to remain so for the rest of the season. "Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August to September) is likely to be 84 per cent of LPA (long period average) with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent. Rainfall during August is likely to be 90 plus or minus 9 per cent of LPA as was forecast in June. The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88 per cent of LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent as was forecast in June," IMD said.

Meanwhile, sowing has remained good in the country despite the weak rainfall in has received.

The country recorded 116 per cent of rainfall of LPA (excess) in June and 83 per cent — or deficient rainfall — in July.

Anything below 90 per cent of LPA is ‘deficient’ rainfall; 90-96 per cent of LPA is considered ‘below normal’; 96-104 per cent of LPA is ‘normal’; and 104 to 110 per cent taken to be above normal. Anything more is ‘excess’.

Last week, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, revised its earlier prediction and lowered its monsoon forecast from 102 per cent to 98 per cent even as it maintained that the country would receive "normal" rainfall during the year.

It has also revised its prediction for August and September.

"Cumulative rainfall for August and September forecast at 92 per cent and 112 per cent (error margin of plus/ minus 9 per cent) of their monthly LPAs, respectively," Skymet said. — PTI