How US views ‘surprise honour’ by Modi

Ashish Kumar Sen

The White House reacted with surprise when it first learned of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to invite US President Barack Obama to be the chief guest at Republic Day celebrations on January 26.  The invitation followed Modi’s successful visit to the US last September where he met Obama for the first time and appeared to have forged a deep bond over two days of meetings, which included a lunch at which the fasting Prime Minister only drank a glass of warm water. 

On that visit, Obama, in a gesture that has since been frequently cited by Indian and US officials as a symbol of the new friendship between the two men and an older bond between their two nations, departed from his official schedule to show Modi around the memorial to Martin Luther King Jr.  Modi responded a few weeks later with a gesture of his own that Indian officials had until then deemed unimaginable. The invitation “took us by some surprise”, said Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications at the White House.

“There’s a great affinity between the United States and India and our people, but there’s also a history that is complicated and that would’ve made it seem highly unlikely that a US President would be sitting with India’s leaders at the Republic Day ceremony as chief guest,” he added.

Obama was honoured to receive the invitation. “I think he sees this as a potentially transitional, if not transformational, moment for the relationship, because we have a very strong and clear indication from India’s leadership that they want to elevate our bilateral cooperation and our global cooperation,” said Rhodes. Phil Reiner, senior director for South Asia at the National Security Council, said the invitation from Modi “continues to set a different tone for our reinvigorated partnership”. That, in a nutshell, sums up how the US is looking at Obama’s visit.

Historic visit

It will be the first time that a US President has visited India twice while still in office. It will also be the first time Obama has attended another country’s national day celebrations.

White House officials insist India has always been a priority for Obama. After all, they say, Dr Manmohan Singh, with whom Obama forged a deep and cerebral bond, was the guest of honour at the first state visit of Obama’s presidency. Never mind that the dinner is best remembered as the time when an American socialite couple gatecrashed a White House event. Obama also travelled to India in 2010. 

The Obama administration had, however, been slow to reach out to Modi even as his star swiftly ascended the Indian political firmament. And so the US watched warily as Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party romped to victory in the elections last year. Washington was uncertain how the new Prime Minister would react to a nation that had revoked his visa in 2005 over allegations of his involvement in the Gujarat riots in 2002.

“It is amazing that eight, nine months ago everyone was wondering whether Modi would snub the US, whether he would hold a grudge for revoking his visa for so many years,” said Lisa Curtis, a South Asia analyst at the Heritage Foundation. “Clearly he has shown that he is not holding that grudge, he is looking forward. The US has shown that it is looking forward in the relationship,” she added. 

Obama was quick to grasp the opportunity, and the invitation, provided by Modi to take the US-India relationship to a higher plane. Modi “has made clear his interest in expanding US-India relations”, said Rhodes.

The “reinvigoration” of the US-India relationship has helped both sides “get to a point where we're actually concretising and actually following through on a lot of the most important elements of the relationship”, said Reiner.

The US-India relationship has, in recent years, become bogged down by differences in the areas of trade; intellectual property rights; technology transfers; India’s nuclear liability law; and foreign direct investment in defence, retail, and insurance.

Modi as an ‘agent of change’

John Schlosser, a former adviser to the assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, said there is now considerable optimism in the Obama administration about Modi as “a change agent”, especially when it comes to improving India’s economic performance and investment climate. The Pentagon, in particular, “is bullish on Modi and looks forward to enhanced military cooperation, especially in the maritime area”, added Schlosser, who is currently with the Albright Stonebridge Group.

Milan Vaishnav, a South Asia analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said defence will be the core of the US-India relationship. “If you look at the four baskets of things that are likely to be high on the agenda — economics, energy and climate, civil nuclear cooperation, and defence — I think in defence we’re likely to see some announcements, whether it is the Defence Framework Agreement or finally identifying a piece of defence material that we can co-produce and co-develop,” he said.

Curtis said India’s unwillingness to sign defence technology protection agreements required by the US when it provides sensitive technologies has been the “biggest stumbling block” in the relationship.

The fact that the economic agenda is a key element of Obama’s trip is underscored by the presence in the President’s delegation of Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and prominent US business leaders who will take part in a CEO forum with Modi and other Indian CEOs. “In terms of trade and investment, there's enormous potential in the relationship. So, we’ll be looking at how we can work through a range of impediments to enhance US-India commercial ties,” said Rhodes.

Rebalance toward Asia

India figures prominently in the Obama administration’s rebalance toward Asia, which has included a trilateral security dialogue between the US, India and Japan. The Obama administration has been an enthusiastic supporter of India’s “Look East” policy — which Modi recently rebranded as “Act East ”— but Washington has been quick to refute suggestions that its Asia rebalance is aimed at containing China. Indian officials bristle at suggestions that the US sees India as a counterweight to its Asian neighbour. 

Many of Obama’s foreign policy priorities intersect with the US-India agenda. For example, Washington is looking to work more closely with India on climate change and clean energy, and public health. In India, Obama will also review with Modi cooperation on counter-terrorism as well as developments in Afghanistan, where US and coalition troops have been drawing down, and the status of nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Civil nuclear cooperation is one area in the bilateral relationship that US officials have watched with dismay as the agreement with India has got bogged down in liability issues. “There are a range of steps that need to be taken to implement that agreement, and that’s always on the agenda,” said Rhodes. Curtis, however, is not confident that the two sides can easily bridge their differences on the liability issue. That gap is “still very wide”, she said. Indian legislation puts the onus for any nuclear accident on the suppliers. “Ultimately, US companies would need the legislation to be adjusted and I’m not sure that the BJP government is in a position to make those legislative changes,” she added.

Nevertheless, US officials and analysts are confident that Obama’s visit, besides its obvious symbolism, provides an opportunity to energise the US-India relationship. The trip has a lot to do with Obama’s legacy, said Vaishnav. “When you look across the foreign policy landscape, there are not a lot of easy wins out there. The world is in a mess,” he said.

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President’s Itinerary

January 25

10:00 am: Air Force One, the presidential aircraft that will fly Barack Obama to India, will touch down at the Air Force Station, Palam

12 noon: Obama will receive a ceremonial welcome at noon at the Rashtrapati Bhawan by President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

12:30 pm: He will pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi at the Rajghat at 12.30 pm and participate in a tree planting event there.

1:00 pm: Obama will join Modi for a restricted working lunch at Hyderabad House. 

2:15 pm: Delegation-level talks at Hyderabad House. 

7:30 pm: Obama will call on the President at Rashtrapati Bhawan.

8:00 pm: Banquet hosted by 

the President.

January 26

10:00 am: Obama to witness Republic Day parade as the chief guest

3:49 pm: He will attend ‘At Home’ reception by the President of India

5:30 pm: India-US CEO Forum Meeting

6:40 pm: India-US Business Summit

January 27

10:30 am: Address by the US President at Siri Fort Auditorium, hosted by US embassy

1:50 pm: Departure

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Nine months ago everyone was wondering whether Modi would snub the US, whether he would hold a grudge for revoking his visa. Clearly he has shown that he is not, he is looking forward. The US has shown that it is looking forward in the relationship.
—Lisa Curtis, south asia analyst, heritage foundation

The reinvigoration of the US-India relationship has helped both get to a point where we're actually concretising and following through on a lot of the most important elements of the relationship.
—Phil Reiner, senior director for south asia, national security council

 There is considerable optimism in the Obama administration about Modi as a change agent, especially on improving India’s economic performance and investment climate. The Pentagon looks forward to enhanced military cooperation.
—John Schlosser, former adviser to assistant secretary of state for south and central asia

 The Obama administration’s goal is to leave this relationship in a fundamentally different place than it was when he took office, and when Prime Minister Modi took office. We believe we have a unique moment of opportunity to have that type of breakthrough. 
—Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser (strategic communications), white house

India is a place where (Obama) can say, ‘Look, I took this troubled relationship with a leader with whom we’ve had no relationship for a decade and I was able to stick to what we promised to do which is pivot to Asia, and India is an important piece of that.
—Milan Vaishnav, carnegie endowment for international peace