What Obama’s visit means for India

KV Prasad

With the President of the United States of America, Barack Obama, arriving in New Delhi this morning, a new chapter is being heralded in the India-US strategic partnership that continues to grow as power centres change in Washington and New Delhi.

His arrival in India for the second time marks a distinct turn in US politics. Just as he reached New Delhi in November of 2010 after the Democrats ceded control of the US House of Representatives in mid-term polls, now the Democratic Party, to which the President belongs, has lost control of the Senate in yet another mid-term elections. In effect, the Republicans, political opponents of President Obama’s party, have seized control of the United States Congress.

As it is, in American political lexicon, the last two years of the incumbent President’s term are referred to as “lame duck”. Thus, in the case of Obama, his ability to manoeuvre lawmakers on Capitol Hill to adopt measures that can translate into law his administration’s policy becomes extremely limited – barring the veto power. 

Just last Tuesday in his annual State of the Union address to the US Congress, President Obama threatened to use the executive power of vetoing Bills that the Republican-majority Congress may adopt to reverse or stall his domestic agenda. Yet, the altering political landscape in the United States should not cast a shadow on the India-United States ties, which over the last few decades enjoy bipartisan support both with successive administrations and the US Congress.

Transformation in ties

It was during Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure from 1999-2004 that the transformation began with India describing the United States as a “natural ally” under a Democratic Party President, Bill Clinton. A change of government both in Delhi and Washington, under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of the Congress and Republican President George Bush, took the bilateral relationship on a higher trajectory.

The Bush administration took steps to review the decades-old American policy to integrate India into its strategic doctrine. As the first step, Washington promised to lift sanctions on India without reference to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) or any other nuclear benchmark, except an underlying assurance of tighter export controls and separation of civilian and military nuclear facilties, which eventually translated into the India-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation in 2008.

Ironically, the momentum suffered a slide after the advent of President Obama even though the United States took an exceptional step with the White House hosting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as the first state guest in November of 2009 and President Obama making a visit during his first term the following year. Since then, the mojo was lost but a sudden infusion of energy and imparting of a new dynamism in the Indo-US ties came when President Obama picked up the telephone to congratulate Narendra Modi, soon after he propelled the Bharatiya Janata Party to victory in the Lok Sabha polls.

Their personal chemistry redefined relationships and was aptly demonstrated when President Obama extended an unprecedented gesture of accompanying Prime Minister Modi to the memorial of Martin Luther King. The equations had altered for the better.

Multifaceted relations

That Indo-US ties are multifaceted and driven not just by interactions between the two governments and its leaders, but by institutions and more importantly its people, is now settled. Yet, it is the government that provides thrust and direction. On the official front, the interactions are spread across a broad range of issues. During the Vibrant Gujarat Summit earlier this month, US Secretary of State John Kerry identified four thrust areas on which the US is working prior to the arrival of President Obama — Strategic Cooperation, Energy and Climate Change, Education and Development, Trade and Economic Cooperation and Science and Technology, Health and Innovation.

Both New Delhi and Washington remain tightlipped on the “deliverables”, as the Americans prefer to describe what India sees as the “outcome” of the visit. That said, the swift announcement by Prime Minister Modi on the Twitter in November of having invited President Obama to be the chief guest on Republic Day and an almost simultaneous response from the White House did fire the imagination of the strategic community at home and India-watchers in the United States.

Agreements on cards

By the end of this evening, specific agreements between the two countries would be known even as New Delhi indicated that a new Defence Framework Agreement, first inked in 2005 for a 10-year period, will be signed to include technology transfer, specifically addressing the issue of joint production. The United States has put on the table a list of some 17 products under this, including the next generation anti-tank Javelin missile. While India signed a co-development pact with Israel on the missile recently, Washington is hopeful that it has a wide range of products on the table that New Delhi can choose from. Defence trade is another area and even when the UPA government was in power, the US put in place the Defence Trade and Technology Initiative to take it beyond the buyer-seller relationship. Recently, the United States replaced Russia as the largest supplier of military hardware.

Strategic cooperation

For the past few years, the strategic cooperation front saw India pushing the envelope on the issue of cyber security, besides the traditional counter-terrorism. On the other hand, Washington is keen to hear from the Indian leadership the role it can play not just in South Asia but in the area now called Indo-Pacific.

The UPA  government under Manmohan Singh favoured strong relations with the United States but the Defence Ministry under AK Antony was clear that New Delhi “is and should not be seen” as a military ally of Washington even as US talked of “re-balancing” toward Asia. A significant section of the Indian strategic thinking community is wary of the Western construct of India being the counter to a rising China.

While policy wonks and think tanks in Washington remain unclear as to India’s view on the regional leadership issue, there is a growing feeling that the United States has not been able to conclude deals in supply of reactors for civil nuclear energy despite having worked overtime to facilitate New Delhi’s special status through waivers. It is almost a decade since the George Bush administration moved in the direction ending India’s nuclear apartheid, yet both General Electric and Westinghouse, which are set to supply nuclear power reactors in India, remain concerned over the nuclear liability laws here.

Climate change talks

Will President Obama be able to go back with a deal similar to the one the US struck with China on carbon emissions? It is anybody’s guess. While the world puts India as the third largest polluting country, in terms of volume and percentage India’s share is a mere 6 per cent of the global emissions as compared to China’s 29 and USA’s 15 per cent. The world is looking forward to President Obama’s visit in this context and his ability to bring India around, which would spell success at the Climate Change Conference in Paris this December.

As late as Wednesday, US officials highlighted the importance attached to President Obama’s visit to India. The fact that this is the first time a US President has been given the honour makes it special.

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The visit brings in new opportunities for Prime Minister Modi’s vision of development, realising that the United States has to be an indispensable partner in terms of technology for clean energy, innovation and knowledge. It is going to be a great visit when both countries sit down and discuss issues. It is maturing of the relationship.
—Surender Kumar, President, India-America Friendship Association

 

President Obama’s fourth meeting and second summit with Prime Minister Modi in four months is going to be a significant event in terms of symbols, signals as well as substance in Indo-US relations. The summit will send signals to China, Pakistan, Russia and many others about the resilience of the Indo-US strategic partnership
—Prof Chintamani Mahapatra, Centre for American Studies, JNU

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Detailed weather forecast

When US President Barack Obama is seated as the guest of honour for the Republic Day celebrations at Rajpath, the weather gods are expected to cooperate. According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet Meteorology, Rajpath may witness some fog on Republic Day, but only in the early hours.

January 25

When the President lands at around 10 in the morning, the dense fog in patches would have lifted. Thereafter, it will be a clear sky.

January 26 

Partly cloudy sky along with shallow fog formation in the morning, which will dissipate by 9.30 am. When the R-Day parade begins at 10 am, the visibility at Rajpath will range between 400 metres and 500 metres. It will gradually improve as the day progresses. Weather models are suggesting the remote possibility of a slight drizzle.

January 27 

 

There are chances of dense fog at Delhi, but only till about 10.30 am. The rest of the day is expected to be clear and sunny.