Punjab polls 2012 analysis: Why the Congress lost the game : The Tribune India

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Revisiting 2012 poll

Punjab polls 2012 analysis: Why the Congress lost the game

CHANDIGARH: For a party banking on anti-incumbency to ride to power, the Congress today found everything going wrong for it after facing a drubbing in the Doaba and Majha regions. While wrong ticket selection came back to haunt the party, its organisational structure failed to deliver.

Punjab polls 2012 analysis: Why the Congress lost the game

A dismayed PCC chief Capt Amarinder Singh at his Sector 10 residence in Chandigarh. Tribune file photo



Jangveer Singh

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, March 6

For a party banking on anti-incumbency to ride to power, the Congress today found everything going wrong for it after facing a drubbing in the Doaba and Majha regions. While wrong ticket selection came back to haunt the party, its organisational structure failed to deliver.

It failed to read that the Sanjha Morcha led by Manpreet Badal would eat into its votes. It even failed to gauge the performance of the Bahujan Samaj Party and the impact of the ‘atta - daal’ scheme on the voter.

Even more important, the Congress was defeated at the hands of SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal. The Deputy CM did his homework well. The SAD went into the poll mode more than a year before the elections when Manpreet Badal resigned from the ministry. The Congress campaign took off only in November 2011.

Sukhbir Badal ensured the Congress rebels continued to be in the race. The SAD played a part in ensuring that BSP candidates were fielded in all 117 seats. This led to a Congress rout in the Doaba region with all nine candidates from Jalandhar losing their seats. The party could win only six of the 25 seats in Doaba.

After a month of furious activity in November 2011 when the Congress held district-level rallies, its campaign came to a standstill in December because of intense lobbying for the party ticket. Different coteries at the Centre ensured at least 20 tickets for their favourites who did not meet the winnability criteria as recommended by Capt Amarinder.

When the campaign started the Congress was hampered by the fact that it had only one star campaigner in Amarinder. Senior Congress leaders, including Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, Partap Bajwa and Jagmeet Brar were limited to their areas because their relatives were in the race.

In contrast, the SAD had Sukhbir Badal and Harsimrat Badal taking care of the Malwa region which saw an Akali resurgence and a reduction in the Congress seats from 37 to 32. The SAD youth wing president, Bikram Majithia, propped up the SAD- BJP in the Majha region, which the Congress was expecting to sweep. The Congress got only eight seats in Majha.

The Congress thought it had taken care of Manpreet Badal when it lured his confidants Kushaldeep Dhillon, Jagbir Brar and Kaka Lohgarh. This had limited success. The PPP attracted the anti-incumbency votes which would have normally gone to the Congress. It also made a dent in the youth vote, which again was pro-Congress. The votes garnered by the CPI and CPM, who were part of the Sanjha Morcha, also cut into the Congress vote bank.

The Congress did not learn any lesson from the reverses suffered by it in the Doaba region in the last assembly elections. No attempt was made to create an alternative leadership there. It also failed to keep its cadre together with Dalits shifting allegiance to the BSP and urban voters remaining with the BJP due to infrastructure development in Jalandhar.

While the Congress concentrated efforts on wooing the Dera Sachha Sauda, it failed to tackle Dera Ballan which is patronised by the Ravidasia sect. The dera, which was molly-coddled by the Akalis, strategically announced its support to the BSP, again hurting the Congress.

The Congress also lost a large number of Dalit votes to the SAD-BJP alliance due to the atta dal scheme. The scheme, which caters to 17 lakh families, ensured the Dalits turned up in good numbers to support Akali and BJP candidates.

The biggest body blow came from Sukhbir propping up rebel Congress candidates. Though the Congress alleged its rebels were financed by the SAD, the Pradesh Congress did not take make enough effort to bring them back into the party fold. There were 22 rebels who affected the party’s chances in more than six seats.

Finally, Sukhbir’s initiative to bring Hindus into the party fold by inducting them in the party’s organisational structure paid dividends. This new cadre ensured the SAD-BJP did well in urban and even semi-urban areas to the detriment of the Congress.

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