No ‘big bang’ monsoon this year

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 28

While the country continues to reel under a severe heatwave, news on the monsoon front is also not good.

Though the much-awaited seasonal rain will hit the Indian mainland (at Kerala) around May 30, the arrival is not likely to be a “big bang” event resulting in strong torrential rain. The India Meteorological Department’s head for long-range forecasting D Sivananda Pai says the first pulse will be “weak”. It will remain restricted to the West Coast in Kerala and Karnataka.

In other words, the rainfall in the first phase will be light-to-moderate and interiors of the south peninsula along with Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh may have to wait for the next pulse to get their share of rain.

The onset at Kerala will change the weather pattern and provide southern parts the much-needed respite from the severe heatwave. Meanwhile, independent forecasters are also predicting a lull of eight to 10 days in the monsoon progress after the initial spell. 

Mahesh Palawat of Skymet says the monsoon will be delayed in Mumbai and the central India. “Although its Arabian Sea arm is active, the Bay of Bengal arm is expected to remain subdued till mid-June,” he said. Northwest areas can expect some relief around June 2 with the arrival of a strong western disturbance. The fear is that relentless hot and dry conditions may plunge affected states into a drought-like situation before the arrival of the monsoon this year.