Delhi, Islamabad should resolve problems on their own: Haqqani

India should not pin high hopes on Trump’s statements against Pakistan, says Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the US. Known for his outspoken criticism of Pakistani deep state policies, Haqqani believes Delhi and Islamabad have to resolve their issues on their own but American can eventually force Pakistan to rethink its policies. Smita Sharma spoke to Haqqani.

Should India be encouraged by Trump’s statements against Pakistan?

The US and Pakistan have real issues that go further back than President Trump’s tweet. I don’t think Indians should raise their expectations on basis of what American policy towards Pakistan might be. India has to deal with Pakistan on its own and recognise and understand Pakistan will always be India’s neighbour. The issue of terrorism has to be dealt by both countries in a realistic manner. Solution to India-Pak conundrum is not sabre rattling. Certainly threats of nuclear war do not help. Those in India who think this is some silver bullet that will solve the problems that have inhibited stability in the region are going to be disappointed

Where do US-Pak relations stand today?

The US is disappointed with Pakistan. Pakistanis have also reached the conclusion that maybe their old policy of having a transactional relationship with the US in which Pak did some favours to the US in return for aid has run its course.What happens on the aid question is not important as it used to be. What is more important is can the US have an honest conversation with Pakistan in which it tells Islamabad that it is not willing to compartmentalise the issue of terrorism. That acting against terrorist groups that attack inside Pak is not good enough. Pakistan has to act against groups that also operate outside Pakistan. President Trump may be much better positioned to lead that conversation than his predecessors. 

Aid suspensions, tough talking by US have happened in past. How is it different this time?

Problem in the US-Pak relationship is that Pakistan’s leadership defines their national interest very narrowly through the prism of India. That definition of Pak national interest doesn’t coincide with American national interest. Any amount of transactional arrangements between the two countries is not a substitute for a substantial relationship. From India’s point of view Pak’s ability to continue to get assistance from the US has been a major irritant. Pakistani officials are trying to say that aid suspension will not make a difference. We need to let it run its course. Eventually what is needed is a re-evaluation of Pakistan’s policies within the country. Pakistan has for 70 years had a particular paradigm that India is our enemy, Islam is our national unifier and US provides us the economic and military assistance we need to survive in a hostile environment.  Can America’s attitude towards Pak help it think about its own future differently? I think yes. But if anybody is looking for a very quick solution that America will turn off the tap and so Pak will change, that is never going to happen.

Has US dependency on Pak reduced? 

Dependency has gone down considerably since when you have a 100,000 troops you need much more supplies for them compared to when you have fewer troops. In worst case scenario you can fly them in. President Trump is less concerned about the nuances.In the big picture he thinks maybe it is time to think of Pak as something other than an ally.

Any signs of change in the Pak military and ISI? 

People are looking for breaking news-Pakistan changes! That is not going to happen. If you are to look at overall equation in the region it is going to take much longer.

Is the US expecting India only to play an increased economic role in the region? How will this feed into Pak hostility?

Most Indian leaders understand it is not in their interest to increase Pakistan’s insecurities. That is why India has been reluctant to get militarily involved in Afghanistan and I hope they continue that policy. Americans also would not like a further complication in Afghan with any Indian military presence. Trump’s view that he wants to see more Indian involvement in Afghanistan is more in context of reducing America’s economic outlay. 

So if India can spend some more money then US can reduce some of its expenditure there. Afghanistan right now needs lots of inflows not only in security realm but also in economic sector. Eventually there has to be a conversation between Afghan-Pak-India. India has to reassure that Afghan is not being used source of destabilisation for Pak. Pak needs to rethink if it is in its interest to continue to advance hardline Islamist Pashtun groups as the future of Afghanistan. Most Afghans do not want it themselves. People do not change these views unless and until circumstances force them to review that.

Could DC leverage more vis-a-vis Tehran if their ties would improve? 

I don’t think DC is rethinking ties with Tehran. You have to take things as they are. You can’t just say change this, change that. It is not on the cards. Accept what people are doing, their views of each other and then formulate policies. This little pipe dream that if America starts rethinking Iran, things will become easy for India ,is not going to happen.

Is China-Pak pivot much stronger today?

Pak and China are as close as two countries can be. They have always thought of each other as partners of last resort in South and Central Asia. From China’s point of view Pak is a secondary deterrent to India and from Pak’s point of view China is a guarantor against India’s overwhelming influence in the region. So few billion dollars here and there is not the question. Pak comes closer to China is a story that keeps getting recycled. I do not see thousands of Chinese troops pouring into Afghan to help the Haqqani Network or the Taliban establish their government.