Hillary or Trump? Debates will help 50% voters decide: Poll

Washington, September 26 

Half of America's likely voters will rely on the presidential debates to help them make their choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton in the November 8 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

The results show the stakes for the White House rivals as they prepare to face-off on Monday (6.30 am IST on Tuesday) at Hofstra University in Long Island, New York, for their first of three one-on-one debates, a prime-time TV spectacle expected to draw a Super Bowl-sized audience of 100 million Americans.

Some 50 per cent of likely voters think the debates will help inform their decision of whom to support, 39 per cent said the debates will not help and 11 per cent said they did not know how the debates would affect them.

In a strong signal that most viewers will also be hoping the debates bring clarity, some 72 percent of respondents said they want to see moderators point out when a candidate says something that is untrue. That included 73 per cent of people who identified themselves as Trump supporters and 82 per cent of those who said they back Clinton, according to the results.

“It helps the audience, particularly me, to recognise what's bull crap and what's real,” said Harvey Leven, 63, a teacher from Farmington Hills, Michigan. “It's easy for the candidates to quote a statistic and people accept it.” 

Clinton currently leads in most national polls and holds critical advantages in key swing states like Ohio and North Carolina. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clinton leading Trump nationally by 4 percentage points.

Clinton had seen her popularity dip in recent weeks after more questions arose about her family foundation and the use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

Many voters are hoping to see a relatively civilised debate, after months of mutual attacks between Trump and Clinton on the campaign trail. Trump has called for Clinton to be jailed for her handling of emails as America's top diplomat. Clinton has accused Trump of racism and of being temperamentally unfit for the Oval Office.

Of those polled, 61 per cent said they are not interested in those kinds of attacks. “Quit picking on each other,” said Lisa Miller, 48, of St. Louis, Missouri. “This isn't a playground. Grow up and talk about your plan.” — Reuters

Leaf from history: Some top debates that made an impact 

Beginning with the very first televised presidential debates in the 1960s, the candidate face-offs have served as some of the most pivotal moments in the history of American politics. Although the debates were not repeated until in 1976, they have been a staple ever since. The debates draw attention, despite the superficial blunders or theatrical, or scripted lines-as they reveal much about the candidate.

September 26, 1960 (John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon): The first televised presidential debate in US history was widely viewed as playing a crucial role in Democrat John F. Kennedy's victory over Republican Vice-President Richard Nixon in that year's general election. Political mythology holds that Americans thought Nixon came off better but Kennedy's cool, attractive demeanor on television provided a winning contrast to Nixon's sweaty discomfort. 

October 22, 1976 (Gerald Ford vs Jimmy Carter): After a 16-year gap of televised debates, the face-offs between Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican President Gerald Ford, were not really memorable. However, they did produce a moment which significantly impacted the final result. After maintaining sizeable lead throughout, Ford squandered the momentum when he stumbled over a question regarding Poland, when he insisted it was not under “Soviet domination”-which it was, and Ford had to retract his statement-feeding into a perception that he was in over his head. Ford narrowly lost to Carter that November.

October 28, 1980 (Ronald Reagan vs Jimmy Carter): Though the 1980 US election is best remembered for Republican Ronald Reagan's landslide victory, their first and only televised debate mattered. Although there was widespread dissatisfaction with Carter, there were also deep concerns about Reagan's experience and temperament. However, Reagan succeeded in convincing the American voters that he was up for the job, and devastated the less dynamic Carter with a single one liner (“There you go again”); and an FDR-inspired closing statement (“Are you better off now, than you were four years ago?”) to which Carter never mustered a memorable retort. 

October 11, 1992 (George H.W. Bush vs Bill Clinton vs Ross Perot): The unusual inclusion of a third party candidate and an eccentric one at that-businessman Ross Perot-ensured an even greater level of interest in the 1992 presidential debates. They were also the first to introduce the so-called “town hall” format, which later turned into a staple.  This format was perceived as especially favourable to then Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, who had become known for his intense eye contact and physical comfort with voters on the campaign trail. President George H. W. Bush was on the other hand, much more awkward in these kinds of encounters. 

October 3, 2012 (Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama): After a lackluster first debate, President Obama saw his re-election chances in real peril as he headed into his second prime-time sparring match with Republican Mitt Romney. During a back-and-forth over the recent embassy attack in Benghazi, Romney tried to take Obama to task for allegedly not calling it a terrorist attack. A confident Obama urged moderator Candy Crowley to “get the transcript”, she eventually interjected and confirmed that the president had called the incident an “act of terror”. IANS