It’s clear: Referendum was decided by grey English vote

Andy McSmith

The United Kingdom is a divided kingdom that may split in two. Referendum results show a country divided by geography, social class, and across the generations.

England and Wales are on one side of the Remain-Leave divide, Scotland and Northern Ireland on the other. London has been shown not to speak for England. Working class voters were mostly in favour of Leave, the middle class less so. The young wanted to stay in the EU. Pensioners wanted to get out.

The most significant variation in terms of its likely political impact is the Scotland-England divide. Scotland voted by 62 to 38 to stay in the EU. “The vote here makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union,” Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said overnight.

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David Cameron was at pains to stress during his resignation speech that Scotland’s administration — and those of Wales and Northern Ireland — would be involved in the process of negotiating Brexit. He will be hoping that his words will have helped avert a break-up of the UK. But the prospect of another Scottish referendum is now real. A few years hence, motorists travelling along the A1 may have come upon a border checkpoint north of Berwick upon Tweed, and may need to change currencies, because they will be using euros on the north side of the Tweed.

Northern Ireland also backed Remain by a proportion of 56 to 44, but is certain now to share a border with the EU, because the Republic of Ireland has no plans to follow the UK into the unknown. 

London was the only English region, but not the only English city or town, to back Remain. While most of the north of England was in favour of coming out, some big cities, including Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds, backed Remain.

Some prosperous parts of the South East and East Anglia also bucked the national trend, an indication that people in the higher income brackets were more likely to vote Remain that those who struggle to compete with immigrant labour for jobs, housing and access to public services.

Oxford voted Remain by a margin of almost three to one. Similarly, Cambridge. Generally, it was noticeable that where there are universities, the Remain prevailed, implying that university students value the opportunities for travel and finding work that go with EU membership more than they worry about the competing with EU migrants for jobs in the UK.

According to YouGov, young voters — those under 25 — backed Remain by a margin of three to one, though the young are notoriously bad at turning out to vote. Those in the 25 to 49 age bracket also backed Remain, by a margin of 56 to 44. But those proportions were reversed by the 50 to 64 year olds, while those over 65 voted 61-39 in favour of Brexit. 

YouGov is having an embarrassing day after their exit poll forecast a comfortable win for Remain, but the general finding is probably true that it was the grey vote that took us out of the EU. —The Independent