Regional parties have a field-day
By Gobind Thukral

THE Indian electorate in its own earthy wisdom has sent a clear message that no single party is worthy of ruling the country. The days of multiparty democracy in a pluralistic society like India are in, and people like Sonia Gandhi and L.K. Advani will have to wait for a long time to see their dream of a two-party system come true.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi depended heavily on her dream that was based on the assessment that the people of India were sick of coalition politics and were yearning for one single party to emerge and provide "a stable government." She weaved a small coalition with Laloo Yadav in Bihar, with Jayal -alitha in Tamil Nadu and with other smaller parties in Kerala. The BJP stitched a more cohesive alternative with 24 parties called the NDA. It was more realistic despite the fact that many BJP stalwarts wished to see the entire "Hindu India" in their lap.

The voters, dismayed otherwise with the squabbles, frequent elections and non-performing governments, chose their own representatives. In fact, regional parties had a field day. The BJP with its allies has formed the government despite the fact that its own strength remained at 182. The Congress, on the other hand, got a drubbing by getting just 112 seats against the 141 held by it in 1998. Both the parties fared badly in Utter Pradesh, which has 85 Lok Sabha seats. Two regional parties, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, outsmarted the Congress which however managed to open its account with 10 seats. The BJP, whose tally stood at 54 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, secured only 31 seats in the state. Its dream of creating a Hindu India has suffered heavily in just two years.

Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi party, the favourite whipping boy of most mediapersons, romped home with 26 seats. None of the major opinion poll or exit poll surveys had given more than 25 seats to the regional groups in Utter Pradesh. But the winning tally, with Mayawati’s BSP adding 14 seats, came to a good 40. Here everyone went wrong in assessing the situation since most middle class oriented journalists imposed their own preference of either the Congress or the BJP, winning more.

A look at India’s vast landscape makes it clear that the regional parties have proved that they matter in the body politic. The national parties, the BJP and the Congress, together have 294 of the 537 seats. the rest of 243 seats have gone to regional parties. This includes both the Left parties--- the CPM, which got 32 seats and CPI which managed to win four seats. Their total reach is limited to West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Winning one seat in Tamil Nadu or another in Punjab does not in any sense make them national parties in terms of electoral arithmetic, though their ideological reach may be more across the country.

So, are the fragmented poll results a sign of India’s fractured polity? One answer could be that the two national parties represent the same ideology as far as the economic issues are concerned. The BJP had to forget its Hindutva and swadeshi agenda in order to weave a coalition before the elections. All the contentious issues had to be given a go by the BJP so that it could ride on the back of regional parties to rule Delhi.

The Congress had to jettison its socialist thinking and concentrate on liberalisation and market economy. In fact, an apparent contradiction is that the two main parties have very little ideological differences. Both Manmohan Singh or Yashwant Sinha pursue the same market-driven approach. Since none represent any sharp division, so the regional issues come into sharp focus. Hence the plethora of regional parties — some 40 right now in the 13th Lok Sabha.

There is right now a loose conglomeration of regional parties on both sides. When the aspirations are local, politics is bound to be regional. Caste and community decide who is who. Each state represents its own kind of flavour.

How long would this last? One answer can be till market forces assert themselves fully and force a two- party system with different ideologies. Another answer is that until caste, community and regional aspirations become subservient to national aspirations.

Perhaps each nation- state in its formative years has faced this kind of a political flux. Will the market forces continue to decide the political complexion of India? It is, however, clear that the battlelines would be drawn between those who rule the roost and those who have been deprived.