Victory by default
By Jatinder Sharma

IN the absence of any wave and with the vital issues concerning the common man relegated to the background during the just concluded Vidhan Sahba elections, impact of caste factor seems to have certainly influenced the poll outcome in more ways than one.

Chief Minister and INLD supremo Om Parkash Chautala continues to sway the Jats by and large, except in the Rohtak district where Congress bigwig Bhupinder Singh Hooda succeeded to some extent in mustering the support of a sizeable section of Jats. Hooda’s own comfortable victory in Kiloi, the success of Congress candidates in Rohtak, Beri, Selhavas and adjoining Julana and the defeat of its nominees with very narrow margins in Meham and Bahadurgarh confirm the shift in this Jat hinterland.

A look into the presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party in almost all the 90 assembly constituencies reveals its role in affecting the final outcome. The BSP succeeded in getting the lone Jagadhri seat. Although the BSP’s performance was poor in most of the seats, in certain constituencies it definitely seems to have affected the results.

Another significant feature is the decrease in the number of women representatives from five to four this time. It is certainly a cause for concern in view of the ongoing demand for one-third reservation for women in Parliament.

Although the CPM and the CPI could not succeed in winning any seat, the CPM state Secretary Inderjit Singh still claims that only the Left had projected an agenda to enable the state to emerge from the crisis and the people were responsive to this programme during the election campaign. The leaders of the Left take credit for exposing the BJP and ultimately cutting it down to size.

A comparatively better turnout of voters in these elections, notwithstanding the absence of any wave or relegation of the issues to the backburner, may be attributed to multiple contests. Especially significant is the presence of many potential rebels and other Independents in the fray. The desire of various social groups to assert themselves more in the political process should not be underestimated.

Three simple inferences from the result of the Vidhan Sabha elections can be drawn. First: Om Parkash Chautala has returned as Chief Minister with a convincing majority. Second: the BJP’s performance is dismal even in Bihar and Orissa contrary to unrealistic claims about its strength. Third: the Congress has once again failed to regain the lost ground though it had the opportunity to reverse the trend.

The verdict has both short and long-term political implications. It will definitely have a bearing on the INLD-BJP relationship, which in time is bound to affect the Vajpayee government at the Centre.

The INLD-BJP marriage of convenience seems to have become strained even before the honeymoon period is over. The BJP, like the HVP, could not escape the anti-incumbency effect which worked against it. The BJP leadership had misconstrued its success in the last Lok Sabha elections and presumed that people might have forgotten its innings in office with the Bansi Lal government.

Like a master strategist, Om Parkash Chautala cashed in upon the Vajpayee factor during the Lok Sabha poll and sufficiently distanced himself from the BJP when Vajpayee was no longer an asset. This calculated distancing helped him win virtually four crucial seats in the Mewat region which otherwise could have gone the other way.

The size of the INLD group and decimation of the BJP are going to create difficulties for the BJP-led government at the Centre. Allies of the BJP in the NDA now have more strength. This dimension assumes further significance against the backdrop of tough economic measures that have to be undetaken.

The assembly verdict in Haryana cannot be interpreted as positive by any party. The victory of the INLD is more due to manipulative political tactics and taking advantage of the weaknesses of the adversaries instead of a positive, proactive, pro-people agenda.

The Congress, too, failed to project a positive programme and overcome its internal bickering for which it had to pay a heavy price. More than half-a-dozen of its rebels returning victorious as Independents and an equal number of its official nominees losing with narrow margins have significantly reduced the Congress strength. This, despite an increase in its poll percentage and more than doubling of its legislator strength — thanks to the fast decimation of the HVP since the 1998 Lok Sabha elections.