Tuesday,
October 30, 2001, Chandigarh, India![]() ![]() ![]() |
Christians’ killings: the lessons India’s debt burden Cotton is not for burning |
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New Great Game in Afghanistan
Smile
awhile
Relevance of PM’s Russian
visit
The cost of eternal youth
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India’s debt burden INDIA
is one of the most indebted countries in the world – it owes in all about $ 100.3 billion at March end this year. It has joined the league of nations like Mexico, Brazil and Chile which were groaning under unbearable loans of more than $ 100 billion in the late seventies and early eighties. They were important allies of the USA and the borrowings were from private banks which were pressurised to waive off the money or soften the repayment schedule. India’s loans are mostly long term and hence from multilateral lending institutions – as much as 95 per cent. That is a cushion of sorts but does not insulate the country from turmoil. By August end this debt was slightly more than a fifth of the GDP and took away more than 17 per cent of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. This is a grey area since remittances from Indians working abroad have plunged and exports are slipping badly. For the current year the share of debt servicing – repaying instalments and interest – will be much higher and will eat into the foreign exchange reserve. At one time, India enjoyed the luxury of retiring (paying back high cost loans) or borrowing low cost bank credit to lower the debt servicing charges. This wise step in the middle of the nineties has helped to peg the total foreign debt to around $ 100 billion. Equally worrisome is what is technically known as public debt. This represents the money the government has borrowed from the public in terms of provident fund, small savings and borrowing from banks. Interest on this comes to more than Rs 70,000 crore and hence the total debt should be more than Rs 7,00,000 crore. With both revenue and fiscal deficits steadily climbimg, there is no possibility in the near future of liquidating this debt. On the other hand, it is likely to boom and upset public finance. The first casualty will be budgetary allocation for social security and the very poor in rural and urban areas will suffer. Agriculture, which has seen no investment in the past few years will continue to suffer as will pollution control and environmental protection. The government has no stomach to increase taxes or to force the big business to pay taxes. Globalisation and lack of political will have set the country on a path of drift and this has dangerous implications. |
Cotton is not for burning COTTON
growers in Punjab and Haryana are protesting against the loss of their crop to the American bollworm and demand Rs 10,000 an acre as compensation from the Centre. In Bhiwani farmers burned their cotton crop recently to lodge their protest against the open sale of spurious pesticides. In Bathinda farmers don’t want compensation; they seek a solution to the recurring bollworm attacks which damage their crop year after year. In Gujarat farmers have found a way out to get rid of the pest . They have used genetically modified seed to grow what is called Bt cotton on some 10,000 acres. The use of such seed, which contains a gene that kills bollworms, is illegal in the country as field trials to determine their safety and test the claims of their being superior and high yielding are still incomplete. US-based Monsanto holds the patent for Bt cotton and has licensed it to Mahyco in India, which raised the issue when it saw a varient of Bt cotton called Navbharat 151, supplied by Ahmedabad-based company Navbharat Seeds, being grown in Gujarat. The government is now debating whether to burn the crop. Union Agriculture Ministry officials favoure the proposal, while others in the Department of Biotechnology oppose it saying the cultivation of Bt cotton is perfectly safe. Agriculture Commissioner C.R.Hazra feels if the harvest of GM cotton is allowed, it would rob the law of all its sanctity and set a bad precedent. Farmers, meanwhile, are busy picking the controversial cotton and selling it. It is felt seeds of GM cotton may have found their way into other states like Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. So burning of the crop in one state won’t help. The real culprit behind the controversy is an inter-ministerial group called the Genetic Engineering Approval Committee which has taken too long to decide whether to allow the GM seeds. Certain scientists are convinced that Bt cotton is safe for cultivation. Department of Biotechnology Secretary Manju Sharma has openly described Bt cotton with the Cry 1 A(C) gene as “perfectly safe”. This cotton, according to media reports, is grown in 15 countries — America and China among them— and it raises the yield by at least 35 per cent. Besides, farmers do not have to spend on pesticides. The seed of Bt cotton was sold on blackmarket in Gujarat for Rs 800 to Rs 1,200 per 450 gm against the actual price of Rs 550. Given the global scenario where the Indian cotton is either failing due to pest attacks or becoming unviable because of being overpriced, it is criminal to delay or deny the benefits of improved seeds to Indian farmers just because a handful of experts cannot make up their mind despite overwhelming evidence on hand. Why burn the crop worth crores of rupees just to cater to the whims of a few indecisive experts? India cannot progress fast if the decision-makers take so long to wrestle with so important an issue as this one. |
New Great Game in Afghanistan TWO men who need watching so far as Afghanistan’s post-war future is concerned are the errant and enigmatic Foreign Minister, Maulawi Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil, and Commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose mujahedeen group fought the Soviets and who is in charge of tribal affairs in the Taliban government, both trying hard to qualify as a “moderate Taliban.” The term might be an oxymoron, as Mr Jaswant Singh says, a contradiction in terms, but a moderate Taliban group could still win this new Great Game if he satisfies a USA that is sharply aware that a modern superpower relies on assured and abundant supplies of energy. In the end, therefore, oil might decide the governance of a bleak and landlocked 252,000 sq miles with 25 million desperately suffering people. Given the precedent of the Panama Canal, the Americans may treat the Central Asian pipeline as the crucial test in a war in which politics and economics are closely entangled but which has nothing to do with religion or the clash of civilisations. Of course, Admiral William Crowe’s quip that Washington would not have fought over Kuwait if it had exported only bananas cannot be applied fully to Afghanistan. The menace of Osama bin Laden is the primary provocation. But Washington knows that his elimination would also liquidate the Taliban in its present extreme form, allowing for the installation, emergence, what you will, of a moderate new government that would be grateful to its sponsor and mindful of America’s hunger for energy resources. Not that Afghanistan compares with Kuwait and Iraq which together account for 45 per cent of the world’s oil. It has no resources to speak of. But the location made Afghanistan a prize in the 19th century. Now, it offers access to vast untapped deposits of oil and natural gas — between 100 and 200 billion barrels according to some experts — under the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This wealth ignited another Great Game in which the USA appeared to steal a march over others when Mr Bill Clinton’s determined diplomacy yielded the 1999 agreements on the Baku-Ceyhan and Trans-Caspian Gas pipelines. These were not, however, America’s first choice. Of the five routes mooted, some would be under Russian control, one was through China and others were threatened by conflicts in former Soviet territory. Though Chevron was first in the field, setting up shop in Kazakhstan in November, 1996, it was Unocal, a small company in which the Turkmenistan government was involved, together with Delta Oil and the Saudi Company, that was seen as the Clinton administration’s best bet in its bid to secure control of the deposits. Unocal’s proposed south-eastern route, with a pipeline from Charjou in Turkmenistan to Karachi, made the most sense in terms of geography and costs. The company had no qualms about supping with the Devil after the Pakistanis enabled their Taliban proteges to throw out the Northern Alliance in 1996 and seize Kabul. Presumably reflecting contemporary American policy, Unocal’s president, Mr Chris Taggart, was quoted as saying: “If Taliban stabilises the situation in Afghanistan and can gain international recognition, the possibility of constructing the pipeline will be significantly improved.” There were reports in the late nineties of several US overtures to Afghanistan’s fundamentalist rulers who would not, however, play ball. The stakes were high in all the five proposed routes. Azerbaijan expected more than $2 billion a year in royalty payments, Georgia $500 million as transit fees. More than 18 trillion cubic metres of natural gas promised a windfall to impoverished Turkmenistan whose old Communist Party has re-invented itself as the Democratic Party, and whose Soviet era leader, Mr Saparmurad Niazov, now President for life, has banned all opposition parties. Pakistan, too, stood to gain handsomely from Unocal’s proposal, especially if, in addition to the Karachi route, a branch pipeline was laid to the Indian border and Mr Dhirubhai Ambani’s $6 billion petrochemical complex, said to be the biggest in the world, near Jamnagar. For the USA, the world’s largest consumer of oil, it was a question of life and death. Fifty per cent of its daily intake of 17 million barrels is imported. West Asia’s turbulent politics and the internal dynamics of insecure Persian Gulf monarchies are strong arguments for looking elsewhere. Central Asian oil is said to be of as good quality. Local demand is low, and the region’s rulers, being poor and unsophisticated, lack capital and technology. The USA could assume the dominance there that it enjoyed in Saudi Arabia in King Ibn Saud’s time in the twenties and thirties, or Britain did in West Asia and Iran at the end of World War-II. Everything hinges now on the course of the war, how it concludes, and the succession process. United Nations involvement might appear to guarantee a degree of impartiality with Mr Kofi Annan’s special envoy, Mr Lakhdar Brahimi, publicly active. But the UN has hardly played an independent or objective role in this crisis, and it is unlikely that Mr Annan or Mr Brahimi will oppose the Americans who are insisting that the Six plus Two (Afghanistan’s six neighbours, the USA and Russia) group should decide the future. India is excluded from this group. Even the Northern Alliance, which is Afghanistan’s de jure government and has friendly ties with New Delhi, is not a decisive factor because it is dominated by Tajiks and Uzbeks while Pakistan is pressing for the biggest role to be given to the Pashtuns, who comprise 40 per cent of the population. India’s counter-strategy is to promote links between the Alliance and ex-King Mohammed Zahir Shah who is a Pashtun, and hence the proposal for a 120-member loya jirga, or grand council, in which all the local parties could participate. The Northern Alliance’s latest stand that only elected delegates should take part is sound in theory and might exclude the Taliban, but any rift between it and the exiled monarch could play into the hands of opponents of a return to secular non-alignment. That would be a gain for Pakistan for whom Taliban supremacy in Kabul was a huge diplomatic coup. It gave Pakistan what Western supporters call “strategic depth” against India. Ex-King Zahir Shah could persuade Americans to overcome their scruples about planting a king next to Iran’s fanatically republican ayatollahs by pledging support for oil pipelines. Such a commitment might also offset the Northern Alliance’s twin drawbacks of General Pervez Musharraf’s hostility and its non-Pashtun character. Perhaps Mr Muttawakil, the latest dark horse, has already done a deal with the rulers of Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates by presenting himself as the acceptable face of Talibanism. A promise to respect the importance of oil to America would make him or Mr Haqqani, or both, at the head of what is projected as a cleansed Taliban, by far the most convenient candidate. It would allow the Americans to claim continuity in Kabul and say that the bombing had not interfered with Afghan politics. Similar manoeuvres nearly a century ago enabled the USA to acquire sovereign rights over the Panama Canal which was thought to be as vital to American economic interests then as oil is now. The treaty that John Hay, the US Secretary of State, signed in 1903 promised Washington’s support and recognition to a bunch of dissident Colombian politicians if they seceded to set up Panama as an independent country, providing they granted the USA “in perpetuity the use, occupation, and control of a zone of land” through which the canal would be cut. At least, the Americans will not this time require Afghanistan’s new rulers to sell a part of their country, only to allow oil pipelines to run through it. The writer is a former Editor of The Statesman. |
Smile awhile SOME people have an odd sense of humour. Take, for instance, the DVB which initials stand for the Delhi Vidyut Board, direct descendant of DESU or the Delhi Electric Supply Undertaking all of whose faults it has inherited, and some more. As soon as the mercury crosses the 40 C mark it issues notices in the Press informing the public in the Capital that the supply of electricity would remain suspended the following day in certain specified areas for anything up to three hours on account of “essential repairs and maintenance”. Why this work cannot be done in the winter months is more than I can understand. DVB seems to derive some sort of sadistic pleasure in making life more miserable for us at the hottest time of the year. I am at an age when a two-hour siesta after lunch is a physical necessity. Whenever “essential repairs and maintenance” are being carried out in our locality my wife has to plug her ears with cottonwool to stop herself listening to the somewhat colourful language I use in relation to this public utility service. A long time ago a newspaper editor, an Englishman, returned a short story to me with a note scrawled on it by hand, instead of the usual rejection slip, saying that while he liked the beginning and the end of my story he thought that the middle sagged like the cake his wife occasionally baked for him. And there is an old story which you may or may not have heard. I wouldn’t swear to its authenticity. It goes like this: Sometime in the early ’50s a prize specimen of a stud bull, born and bred in Sweden, was presented to us by the UN. In the government agricultural farm to which it was sent one cow after another was put in its enclosure. All the bull did was to look longingly at his companion and keep his distance. In desperation, the superintendent of the farm who, apparently, could talk bull language, asked the bull: “O noble beast, why have you spurned each comely cow that has been presented to you? Tell me your requirements and we shall do our best to meet them”. “There’s nothing wrong with the cows”, replied the bull. “In fact, you have some very pretty ones in your country.’ “But then”, said the perplexed official, “why has there been no response from you?’ “You see”, said the bull, sadly shaking his head, “before I left home I was told that I would be here purely in an advisory capacity”.
If the story is true, the UN certainly pulled a fast one on us that time! |
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Relevance of PM’s Russian
visit MR Atal Behari Vajpayee will be on a four-day visit to Russia beginning Sunday next. From Moscow, he will go to the USA for talks with President George Bush. Though scheduled as part of the proposed annual summit level talks between the two countries, the reversal of an earlier trend in geopolitics after the Afghan war and the global economic meltdown adds new dimensions to the Prime Minister’s visit to Russia. Until the Black Tuesday, South Block was so hopeful of a totally favourable US tilt as a logical corollary of the end of the cold war power equation. The whole Jaswant Singh thesis — his endless secret talks with US officials, unsolicited, unilateral support on the national missile defence and the offer of Indian bases, etc — was based on this assumption. If some one in the USA spoke of India’s commitment to democracy and free press, it thrilled us. The US displeasure on General Musharraf had made us feel that we have at last become the ‘‘good boy’’ of the subcontinent. Now suddenly we realise that the man who was projected as a threat to democracy in Pakistan has emerged a saviour of civilisation. Shorn of all diplomatic verbal caution and strategic jargon, in layman’s language Pakistan has once again acquired the centre-stage in US policy for the region. The old cold war bulwark against the Soviet bloc is now being made a counter to and tamer of the Islamic excesses. Jaswant Singh had often protested the US balancing India with Pakistan. Now Washington is going the whole hog to strengthen its position by mobilising economic support for Pakistan through the IMF-World Bank and business firms. Apparently, this harsh truth has dawned on New Delhi, and it has begun reflecting in its action plans against terrorism and security concerns. Now there are few takers for the Jaswant thesis of diversified defence procurement. Instead, this time the prime ministerial team will more vigorously pursue defence ties with the Russians. Many crucial defence deals are expected to be given final shape at the confabulations with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The other item on Vajpayee’s agenda — economic cooperation with the Russians — seems more complicated. The old style state-to-state or state-sponsored business will not work any more. Globalisation has swept away the pre-1991 captive market for our Assam tea, Andhra tobacco, Agra footwear and Ludhiana woollens. Much of it remains collapsed due to stiff competition from other countries. The figures for the past two years reveal this fact. However, the globalised modern capitalist regime, with all its inherent contradictions and periodic market collapses, financial debacles, closures and job cuts, also provides opportunities for India to venture into the inadequately explored Russian markets. For Indian business, this is a major overseas challenge worth trying, especially in view of the positive changes in that country and the continuing meltdown in the developed West. There are clear signs of an awareness in Russia for creating an atmosphere conducive to enterprise. This was unthinkable in the last decade. It was marked by mafia extortion’s, plundering of valuable state assets by local and foreign groups in the name of hasty privatisation and the mismanagement of the change-over by a confused ruling elite. As against this, the new rulers have been able to enforce some amount of discipline and rule of law. Those who have returned from Russia after probing visits in recent days didn’t experience any don nuisance. ‘Expert’ advisers from foreign universities and institutions on reform and liberalisation, who had their own share in the chaotic transformation of the early years, have all gone back. The Putin administration has been able to make the place more livable and conducive to do serious business. This is reflected in the remarkable improvements in Russia’s economy. There seems to be determined efforts to make foreign investment more attractive. Russia’s GDP growth touched 4 per cent at a time when developed countries fared rather miserably. True, this has been more due to the slow integration of Russia’s economy with that of others and its own isolation. Yet it has made remarkable strides by reducing inflation from 20 per cent in 2000 and as high as 185 per cent in the previous year, to 7.1 per cent this year. US agency Merrill Lynch estimates that in current year, the Russian stock market has achieved the second place for return on investments. It finds a 27.5 per cent rise in efficiency on investments from the previous year. This, it says, is accompanied by highly improved fiscal management with a budget surplus of as much as 1.8 per cent of the GDP. This surplus on balance of payments has reached the highest level in the last two years. The increase in external debt has been halted and the internal debt remained below the level scheduled for the year. Such fiscal consolidation would encourage those who desire to enter into business deal with the Russians. Despite this, Russia continues to be bogged down by poor manufacturing technology. The new regime is assiduously wooing foreign investors with the bait of improved business climate. Unlike the Chinese, Russia lacked the support of an enterprising overseas business and trade population. It now needs a vast army of technicians and efficient managers. With its own reservoir of qualified hands, this provides tremendous opportunities for India. Another area where the two countries could cooperate is the IT sector. Russia still holds the potential in IT hardware design and computing. With our own army of software experts - who find the going tough in US and elsewhere due to the severe meltdown — there is ample scope for the two countries to try for joint ventures. Some have already put forth the idea of using such ventures to tap the market in the west. Another area suggested is microelectronics. With an impressive network of man power training in IT, our national institutes could do well in Russia. There have also been proposals that the Indian telecom industry could play a major role in modernising Russia’s outdated system. In the next four years, Russia needs about two million telephone lines. Another report puts the financial requirements of Russia in the next decade at $ 40 million. Both private and public sector giants in India have the potential to undertake this task. There have also been suggestions for equity participation in such ventures. FICCI, which has been exploring areas of cooperation between the two countries on the eve of the prime ministerial visit, has suggested agro processing, pharmaceuticals, mining and oil and gas exploration. This is apart from information technology and telecommunication. Indian ONGC is already engaged in such projects in Russia. FICCI wants both the government and the corporates to prepare perspective plans in this regard. While the whole idea is at a very preliminary stage, India’s half a century of working familiarity with the Russians can be an added advantage. But it is too hasty to expect wonders from the Moscow visit. The summit can, at the most, break the mental barriers. In a globalised free market, hard economic realism alone will matter.
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How to feel more
intelligent 1. Capitalise on your enthusiasm. If you do things you genuinely like, your performance improves. A football fan, for instance, will effortlessly remember old scores, but could struggle to recall Health & Safety regulations at work. 2. Take care of your body, says Tony Buzan, author of Head Strong. ‘If you get physically fit, you become more intelligent,’ he says, citing chess player Gary Kasparov’s obsession. A fitter body, he says, provides more oxygen to the brain. 3. Stimulate your creativity, advises Buzan: ‘When your senses open, your memory improves.’ Intelligence is, arguably, about making sense of the external world and translating stimuli from it. The more open you are to outside influences, the better you will become at understanding them. The more self-absorbed you become, the more you blunt your ability to engage with others. 4. Develop interests in politics, sport or other subjects which enable you to have discussions with other people. 5. Don’t let poor relations with others restrict personal and intellectual growth. Change jobs if you work somewhere that crushes the spirit. Pat Dannahy, trainer in ‘non-violent communication’, teaches people to sort out differences without blame — but says some companies encourage dysfunctional behaviour: ‘Some institutions have a story everyone buys into. It becomes impossible to act outside it.’ Liking other people helps, because you communicate better and take in new ideas. 6. Tap into your subconscious. If you can sleep on a problem, your mind will often provide you with a solution. Imaginative functions fare better when people are relaxed. 7. Analyse your poor decisions and work out how you could do better. Bad decisions stunt your enthusiasm, which makes you less alert. 8. Become efficient and disciplined. `Check and test,’ is the real motto of the SAS, the crack UK military outfit — motto ‘Who dares wins’ — says former trooper Andy McNab. Having a good idea is rarely enough. Implementation is usually the hardest task, but if you can do the boring stuff as well as the big thoughts, you are probably miles ahead.
The Observer |
Dusehra bomb explosion With reference to the bomb explosion at Lahore on Dusehra evening, Government has offered a reward of Rs 5000 to anyone who gives information which will establish the identity of the person who had the bomb in his possession. |
The cost of eternal youth MOST frequently sought in fountains and springs, eternal youth has been the Holy Grail for cultures throughout time. The Greeks were obsessed with it and today we are just as eager to be 21 for ever. But while there are plenty of people behaving like teenagers now, it is easy enough to spot which are in their thirties. Eternal youth shouldn’t be that difficult. Giant tortoises, for example, live far longer than us and they’re reptiles. Scientists have also been able to extend the lives of fruit flies and worms through genetic modification. There are several problems with this sort of tampering. Flies and worms are less complex than the average human — they don’t suffer from Alzheimer’s, cancer or osteoporosis. But the long-lived mutants that are produced happen to mature, move, feed and breathe far more slowly. Who would want to live to 150 if it meant existing in slow motion? And, anyway, such genetic trials cost hundreds of thousands of pounds. So, if science doesn’t yet have the answer, perhaps one has to create the illusion of eternal youth. And there are no end of options out there. The humble facelift is the tried and tested method, but it can still go wrong, leaving the unfortunate with a rictus expression. Expect to spend US dollars 5,720 upwards, although cosmetic surgery is cheaper in South Africa and eastern Europe. Having Botox injections to numb and iron out wrinkles is becoming widespread (US dollars 214.50 a time) but the real money-maker is in creams and moisturisers. And there are racks of the stuff.
The Observer |
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Such sweet and beneficent society in Nature, in the very pattering of the drops, and in every sound and sight around my house, an infinite and unaccountable friendliness all at once like an atmosphere sustaining me. *** The day is an epitome of the year. The night is the winter, the morning and evening are the spring and fall, and the noon is the summer. *** The earth.... is living poetry like the leaves of a tree, which precede flowers and fruit.... compared with whose great central life all animal and vegetable life is merely parasitic. *** The surface of the earth is soft and impressible by the feet of men; and so with the paths which the mind travels. *** The sun is but a morning star. *** Our human life but dies down to its root, and still puts forth its green blade to eternity. — Henry David Thoreau, Walden *** To believe in Your Name is like tasting the sweets, To hear your Name is like tasting saltish foods, To utter your Name is like tasting the sour, To sing your Name is like tasting the spicy foods, And to love single mindedly is like tasting thirty-six kinds of delicacies... All other pleasures and foods are vain and useless. — Sri Guru Granth Sahib,
Sri Rag M.1, page 16 *** A person who does not have a healthy conduct, who has become a slave to his mind and organs, of sense and action, who observes no temperance in his conduct and diet, such a weak and unfortunate man will always be in need of medicines and doctors. — Sudarshan Kumar Biala, Yoga for Better Living and Self Realisation. |
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