Picking its CM proves a tightrope walk for Congress in Kerala

The dust has barely settled on its landslide electoral victory, but for the Congress party in Kerala, the next step—choosing its chief minister—is already proving to be a high-stakes tightrope walk.

With AICC General Secretary K.C. Venugopal, senior leader Ramesh Chennithala and incumbent Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan emerging as contenders for the top job, the party leadership faces a difficult choice.

Internal jockeying has exposed deep-seated fissures, and it will be interesting to see how the party leadership resolves the issue without tarnishing the sheen of its magnificent victory.

By available accounts, the K.C. Venugopal faction has moved with aggressive intent, laying claim to a commanding majority in the newly elected Legislature Party.

Sources within his camp claim support from the vast majority of successful candidates. Former KPCC President K. Sudhakaran, who has been rooting for Venugopal for some time, reportedly reached out to senior leader K. Muraleedharan on Monday to consolidate support.

For Venugopal, the logic appears simple: in a parliamentary democracy, numbers speak the loudest.

Ramesh Chennithala does not accept that argument. In an interview with a TV channel, Chennithala stated that the Legislature Party leadership cannot be determined merely on the basis of numbers.

He asked, "If the MLA headcount was the absolute yardstick, why was I not handed the reins as Leader of the Opposition back in 2021?"

Chennithala is citing his seniority in the party to push his claim to the top post in the state.

Caught in the middle is Satheesan, who carries the momentum of having steered the UDF through five years of vigorous opposition. His camp argues that the leadership question cannot be reduced to a purely mechanical exercise of counting heads. They emphasise that Satheesan is the "captain" who led the front to this massive mandate, and his widespread popularity among both the public and key coalition partners remains his greatest asset.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second-largest United Democratic Front (UDF) constituent, has already signalled its preference for Satheesan, viewing him as a unifying and capable administrator.

Other UDF allies are expected to follow suit, creating a wall of support for continuity that the Congress Central leadership cannot easily ignore.

If, despite all this, Chennithala and Venugopal combine to edge out Satheesan, the party might well face a volatile scenario. There is already talk that if sidelined, a disgruntled Satheesan might refuse to join the Cabinet.

There is also the possibility of the party facing a "VS moment"—the historic instance where public outcry forced the CPI(M) to reverse its decision and allow V.S. Achuthanandan to run for office in 2006.

Given Satheesan’s significant public goodwill, any perception of a denied mandate could trigger similar grassroots discontent.

The final decision rests in New Delhi. While Venugopal holds the numerical edge, his central role in the AICC makes him indispensable to Rahul Gandhi’s organisational machinery.

He was chosen as chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) only the other day, and some view this as a clear sign of where the national leadership's preference—read Rahul Gandhi's—lies.

If the ultimate decision is to keep Venugopal in Delhi, he may well emerge as the ultimate kingmaker, securing Cabinet positions for a large number of his nominees.