Aviation expansion may strain climate goals without rapid SAF scale-up: Niti Aayog report

India’s aviation sector will remain one of the most difficult segments to decarbonise even under a Net Zero pathway, with Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) continuing to dominate liquid fuel demand for decades, according to a NITI Aayog report released on Wednesday.

The report said under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), the ATF demand is projected to reach 43 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2050 and decline only marginally to 40 Mtoe by 2070. It described aviation as “among the hardest modes to decarbonise rapidly” and noted that the sector is therefore expected to remain reliant on liquid fuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

The report, looking ahead, assumed that aviation passenger traffic could sustain an 8 per cent annual growth rate in passenger km. As incomes rise, the modal share of air travel is projected to increase from 4 per cent in 2025 to around 8 per cent by 2070.

However, the environmental challenge remains significant. The report noted that ATF has a high lifecycle emissions intensity of about 88.7 gCO2e per megajoule. Globally, aviation contributes around 3 per cent of total CO2 emissions and 12 per cent of transport emissions, it said, adding that the overall climate impact of aviation “may be two to four times higher when non-CO2 pollutants are considered”.

To address this, the report highlighted that SAF as a key decarbonisation pathway. The SAF, derived from second-generation ethanol and other advanced feedstocks, “can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80 per cent compared to traditional jet fuel”.

India has aligned its national SAF initiative with the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). As a member state, India is required to comply with CORSIA’s mandatory phase beginning in 2027.

“The National Biofuels Coordination Committee has set blending targets of 1 per cent SAF by 2027 and 2 per cent by 2028 for international flights. Under the Net Zero Scenario, SAF blending in international operations is projected to reach 5 per cent by 2030, rising to 50 per cent by 2050 and 70 per cent by 2070. For domestic aviation, the blend is expected to increase from 2 per cent in 2030 to 50 per cent by 2070,” it said.

The report said India had sufficient biomass potential for the SAF but “lacks feedstock collection and refining infrastructure”. It noted that SAF is around 1.5 times costlier than conventional jet fuel and warns that reliance on first-generation feedstocks “could promote unsustainable land use”.

It also pointed out that obtaining regulatory clearances for commercial SAF production can take a year or longer, creating bottlenecks. While biofuel blending in the form of ethanol, biodiesel, SAF and Compressed Bio-Gas has been incorporated into projections, the report clarified that detailed assessment of feedstock availability, land-use competition and supply chain logistics is outside its scope, which may introduce uncertainty in large-scale deployment.

In addition to SAF, NITI Aayog has recommended scaling sustainable biofuels under clear sustainability standards, developing a national roadmap for green hydrogen and e-fuels for heavy-duty transport, shipping and aviation, and promoting methanol, ammonia and synthetic fuels for hard-to-electrify segments. It has also called for future-proofing gas and petroleum pipelines to make them compatible with hydrogen and biofuels.