‘India and the Rebalancing of Asia’ by C Raja Mohan: Centring India in the Asian calculus

In this 2025 Adelphi book, C Raja Mohan provides a sophisticated analysis of New Delhi’s transition from a hesitant regional player to a proactive strategic balancer. As one of India’s most influential strategic thinkers, Raja Mohan argues that the “Asian Century” is being reshaped by the structural rift between a rising, assertive China and the United States seeking to maintain a regional balance of power.

Raja Mohan’s thesis rests on several pivotal shifts in the Indian grand strategy. The principal one arises from the Chinese assertiveness, especially the border crises between 2013-2020, that has pushed India beyond its non-aligned caution to a power that increasingly reached out to the United States and the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US and Japan.

These have been argued in a more fuller way in his past writings, such as ‘Crossing the Rubicon: The Shaping of India’s Foreign Policy’ (New York, Palgrave, 2004); ‘Impossible Allies: Nuclear India, United States and the Global Order’ (New Delhi, India Research Press); and ‘Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific’ (Washington, Carnegie Endowment, 2012). Raja Mohan has played a significant role in shifting the Indian strategic discourse from its third world/non-aligned orientation towards its current realpolitik.

If some Chinese thinkers put across the notion of China at the middle, Raja Mohan argues for an “India at the centre” thesis, going back to the policies of British India, which makes for India emerging as the centre of gravity of Asian security, straddling the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The book positions the US-India relationship as the most consequential partnership for the 21st century, framing India as a “net security provider” that helps Washington maintain an offshore balance against Chinese hegemony.

A special strength of Raja Mohan’s book is that he grounds his work in the long-term evolution of Indian policy going back to the colonial era. In that sense, he sees India “reclaiming” its role, rather than inventing it.

A critique of Raja Mohan’s optimism is the disparity between India’s strategic intent and its material capability. While India wants to be a balancer, its economic and defence capacity still lags significantly behind China’s. Raja Mohan has argued for a closer military alignment between the United States and India.

His point about India’s “rebalancing” is largely in the military and political plane. Having stayed out of major trade blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), India risks being marginalised in the economic architecture of Asia — a point that he readily acknowledges but which remains a major structural weakness. However, recent shifts, such as the spate of trade deals that India has arrived at with the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Oman, EU, EFTA and the US, suggest that things are changing.

India could move away from its protectionist strategies and be willing to be involved in alternatives to the China-centric supply chains through, say, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

While Raja Mohan discusses expanding ties with Europe and Japan, there is the challenge of reconciling India’s deepening US ties with its enduring relationship with Russia. India’s current “multi-alignment” posture can accommodate a stretch, but it would not be able to sustain the strain beyond a point where India becomes entangled in its own logic. Actually, in reality, the biggest challenge is not multi-alignment, which is something of a fiction in a world of two superpowers — China and the US.

A big problem is that Raja Mohan’s book, which probably went to press in mid-2025, has been somewhat overtaken by the events of the last six months that saw a near collapse of the US-India relationship. In his recent writings, Raja Mohan has been urging for an Indian policy of not publicly arguing with the US, but keeping systemic engagement alive through interaction with the US security establishment. He was always optimistic that with the passage of the Indo-US trade deal, the path towards normality will again open up. But this will not account for the lost momentum and trust in India-US ties.

The reality, and Raja Mohan understands this well, is that Trump’s behaviour has been a catalyst of sorts in the India-China reconciliation. India now looks less like a central swing state in the Indo-Pacific, and more like a reticent player in Trump’s confusing global theatre.

In his recent writings, Raja Mohan has been arguing for a strategy for India that is defined by pragmatic patience and tactical hedging. But his primary thesis continues to be that there are structural factors that bring the US and India closer and they are likely to continue to obtain in the future.

— The reviewer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi