China’s exports surge in January-February despite waning trade with US

China’s exports rose nearly 22 per cent in the first two months of the year from a year earlier, as its trade with countries other than the United States expanded.

The export figures released by China’s customs agency on Tuesday were much better than economists had forecast. They far exceeded the 6.6 per cent annual pace of growth recorded in December.

Imports in January and February rose almost 20 per cent, up from December’s 5.7 per cent year-on-year increase. However, China’s imports from the United States dropped nearly 27 per cent from a year earlier.

China’s exports have been a bright spot for its economy despite tensions with the US. China’s exports climbed 5.5 per cent for 2025 as its trade surplus surged to a record of nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions including Europe and Latin America helped offset a 20 per cent drop in exports to the US as US President Donald Trump imposed a variety of higher tariffs on imports from much of the world.

China’s global trade surplus in January-February was $213.6 billion. Trade data is typically combined for January to February each year to help even out seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year festival, the biggest holiday of the year.

A slowing domestic economy fuelled by a years long property sector downturn has been weighing on the world’s second largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders announced an economic growth target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent for 2026, the lowest since 1991.

The war in the Middle East has raised uncertainty over the outlook for trade as well as China’s own energy security.

An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for much of the world’s trade in oil and gas, may restrict China’s access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and also impede its broader commerce with the region.

A recent US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs, already resulting in lower tariffs for countries including China, could likely “provide modest support to Chinese exports,” economists from Bank of America wrote in a research note.

Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March is being closely watched for a possible extension of a trade truce between the two countries reached in October last year, which could be positive news for Chinese exports to the US.