Exports in third quarter to shrink: Exim Bank

Tribune News Service

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New Delhi, December 17

Total merchandise exports in the third quarter will continue to be in negative territory, according to an assessment by the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank).

Total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to $ 77.6 billion in the third quarter of 2020-21, as compared to $ 79 billion in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports, witnessed since March 2020, said the peer-reviewed assessment.

The Exim Bank forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of 20-21 to amount to $ 68.3 billion, witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3 per cent, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive quarters of contraction.

The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model.

In a departure from similar prognosis about economic growth rates, Exim Bank has also disclosed the domain experts involved in the exercise: Saikat Sinha Roy (Centre for Advanced Studies, Jadavpur University), Sarat Dhal (Department of Economic and Policy Research, RBI), Prof NR Bhanumurthy (VC, BASE University, Bengaluru) and Prof C Veeramani (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai).

The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter January-March 2020 would be released during the first week of March 2020.

Export Leading Index (ELI) is an in-house model to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. It gauges the outlook for exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.