Moody's cuts India's FY27 GDP growth estimates to 6 pc amid West Asia conflict

Moody's Ratings has slashed India's economic growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent earlier, saying the ongoing conflict in West Asia will moderate growth momentum and raise inflation risks.

In its credit opinion report on India, Moody's said prolonged disruptions, particularly LPG shipments, due to the conflict, would lead to near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and spillovers to food inflation through India's reliance on imported fertilisers.

The region accounts for around 55 per cent of crude oil imports and over 90 per cent of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to India.

"While inflation remains contained for now, geopolitical risks have tilted the inflation outlook to the upside," Moody's said while projecting inflation to average 4.8 per cent in FY27, up from 2.4 per cent in FY26.

With inflation risks re-emerging and growth remaining robust, policy rates are likely to be held steady or raised gradually in fiscal 2026-27, depending on the duration of geopolitical tensions and their pass-through to food and fuel prices, Moody's said.

"In light of India's economic exposure to the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, we expect real GDP growth to moderate to 6 per cent in fiscal 2026-27 from 6.8 per cent earlier, driven by subdued private consumption, softer industrial activity and a weakening in the momentum of gross fixed capital formation amid elevated prices and higher input costs," according to the Moody's report, dated March 31, accessed by PTI.