WPI inflation likely to breach 10% in September, remain elevated through 2026: Experts

New Delhi [India], September 14 (ANI): Wholesale price inflation is likely to breach the 10 per cent mark in September and remain elevated in the near term, economists said, citing adverse base effects, higher global commodity prices and persistent pressures from food, fuel and manufactured products.

India's headline WPI inflation rose to 9.92 per cent in August 2026, from 9.78 per cent in July and 9.97 per cent in June, according to India Ratings & Research. The August reading was driven by a sharp increase in fuel and power inflation, which rose to 22.93 per cent from 20.05 per cent, while manufactured products inflation increased to 8.37 per cent from 8.29 per cent.

Devendra Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings & Research, said wholesale inflation is likely to rise to 10.2 per cent in September 2026 and remain elevated through the rest of the year unless a permanent solution is found to the prolonged West Asia crisis.

Pant said deficient rainfall had not had a significant impact on food prices until August, with the increase in food inflation largely reflecting an adverse base effect. However, he noted that the West Asia crisis had reversed two months of declining fuel and power inflation and was likely to keep prices elevated.

He also flagged signs of broader price pressures in manufacturing, with seven sectors -- tobacco products, textiles, chemicals, rubber and plastics, base metals, electrical equipment and other manufacturing -- recording double-digit inflation in August. Together, these sectors account for 26.3 per cent of the WPI, indicating that inflationary pressures may be becoming more structural, Pant said.

Rahul Agrawal, Principal Economist at ICRA, said WPI inflation increased to 9.9 per cent in August from 9.8 per cent in July, in line with ICRA's estimate. The increase was led entirely by food and fuel, while other groups recorded softer inflation.

WPI food inflation rose to a 20-month high of 7.1 per cent in August from 6.6 per cent in July, led by fruits and vegetables, milk, spices and sugar, Agrawal said.

He expects food inflation to rise further in September-October due to an unfavourable base and stronger-than-usual sequential price increases in some food items. Global commodity prices are also expected to keep fuel and core WPI inflation elevated.

Agrawal expects WPI inflation to exceed 9.5-10 per cent in September-October, before cooling thereafter on a favourable base, unless global energy and commodity prices rise further. (ANI)

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