Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, October 17
With the number of new Covid cases per day seeing a sharp fall in recent days, the city’s case doubling time has increased to 130 days from 17 days in mid-August. This has been revealed by the UT Health Department.
On September 16, the case doubling time was 19 days. Last week, the number of new infections grew by an average of 0.6 per cent a day, which is the lowest since the start of the pandemic.
At the national level, the case doubling time has sharply increased to 70.4 days from 25.5 days in mid-August.
In epidemiology, the doubling time is the number of days required for the number of cases in an epidemic to double. It is based on the rate of the cumulative increase in the case count. The doubling time is a crude estimate of the current rate of spread of the virus.
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A higher doubling time means it is taking longer for the cases to double and indicates that the infection is spreading slower. Conversely, a lower doubling time suggests a faster spread of infection.
Arun Gupta, Principal Secretary, Health, UT, said, “Doubling rate is inversely proportional to the number of positive cases detected in the last one week. It is also a function of total cases so far. The doubling rate has increased many times than what was last month. This is the trend in the whole country, though more pronounced in case of Chandigarh. The decline in the number of cases is sharper in the UT. We hope it increases further.”
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare had projected that Chandigarh will witness 14,376 cases by October 13, of which 4,200 will be active. The projection proved wrong as the city had been witnessing a dip in the number of cases reported in a day. Chandigarh has a fatality rate of 1.5 per cent, while the recovery rate has gone past 90 per cent.
Gupta said, “Covid fatality is still an area of concern. We expect the fatality trend to subside in the next week or so due to the impact of the decreased number of cases and increased focus on providing timely medical care to Covid patients.”
From October 9 to 16, the city recorded 18 fatalities as compared to 19 reported in the preceding week. It recorded 24 Covid deaths a week before.
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