Avoid another proxy war in Afghanistan

Shahzad Raza

Former US President Ronald Reagan called Afghan warlords “the moral equivalent of the founding fathers” of the US. The CIA-funded blockbuster movies like Rambo-III commemorated the bravery of the Afghans. Colluding with their Saudi partners, the Americans funnelled billions of dollars to Afghan warriors through Pakistan.

The multi-purpose strategy, in the early 1980s, was aimed at defeating the Red Army, disintegrating the Soviet Union, attaining the status of sole super power and avenge the humiliation of Vietnam War. Soon after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces in 1989, the warlords turned against each other and wrote another chapter of bloodshed in the history of the land-locked country. Then rose the Taliban from Kandahar. They set examples of extreme barbarity, radicalising the entire society.

Pakistan was one of the three countries which recognised the Taliban regime. The US while assessing the situation even invited Taliban officials to Washington once. Then Osama bin Laden happened. And the rest is history.

The US fought a costly war in Afghanistan following 9/11. The strategists at Langley and the Pentagon used the United Nations platform to wage a legalised war against the Taliban to be joined, primarily, by their NATO allies. Pakistan was given the status of a non-NATO ally. The country received billions of dollars in exchange of facilitating the coalition forces. Pakistan revoked the recognition of Taliban government and got its ambassador to Islamabad, Mullah Zaeef, arrested. 

In his book, Al-Quds editor, Abdel Bari Atwan claimed that al-Qaeda was born on the outskirts of Peshawar. The Pakistani establishment let them operate at will thinking their vision of achieving the so-called strategic depth in Afghanistan against India would eventually materialise.

Pakistan paid a heavy price of becoming the US proxy in two Afghan wars. The first war was followed by a huge inflow of refugees, heroin and Kalashnikovs. That disrupted the fabric of Pakistani society. The country still hosts more than two million registered and unregistered Afghan refugees.

The consequences of the second Afghan war were more detrimental. The terrorists from al-Qaeda and other entities wreaked havoc on Pakistan. They found too many targets, including the military headquarters and an elite commandos training facility. In the last 10 years, Pakistan has conduct a number of clean up operations. With rigorous efforts, the military and civilian leaders have managed to contain the situation, but not before losing more than 60,000 lives and $100 billion. The strategic loss for Pakistan was that it lost leverage over Taliban. Its connection with Haqqani network invited ire from Washington.

Recently, Prime Minister Imran Khan revealed that Pakistan was facilitating a dialogue process between the Americans and Taliban.  In its South Asia policy, President Trump prefers India over Pakistan to resolve the Afghan quandary. The Indians have already invested in the rebuilding of Afghanistan and are interested in establishing a permanent trade route to Kabul  and other central Asian states.

While India is investing in Afghanistan to apparently make any Afghan government its proxy, Pakistan has reverted to Taliban to strike a strategic balance. 

Both India and Pakistan have failed to understand the history of the baron country. The Afghans cannot be dictated for too long. Not every Afghan is Hamid Karzai or Ashraf Ghani. Unless Pakistan and India normalise their relations, another proxy war in Afghanistan cannot be averted. Both countries would have much more to lose than the former Soviet Union and the US.