AAP faces test of performance in Punjab

HAVING completed four years in office recently, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is gearing up for a tough Punjab Assembly election. Recent Assembly elections in the country have shown that anti-incumbency is not the only decisive electoral factor. Rather, it is the performance of the government that matters the most, apart from other factors, like organisation, leadership, resources and a social support base. Since the AAP in Punjab lags in the other factors as compared to its rivals, the Congress and BJP, it is performance that will be the crucial factor for the party.

One way to gauge the AAP’s performance is to look at the pre-poll promises made by the AAP. The party, in its 2022 election manifesto, reiterated its promise to combat corruption, organised crime, drugs and unemployment and go for investment in education and health sectors in line with its 'Delhi model'.

Poll guarantees also included freebies like cash transfers to women and subsidised electricity to every household. To address the issue of the state's indebtedness, the party promised to bring in fiscal reforms and cut down public expenditure that had gone up due to the prevailing VIP culture.

With the farmers' protest against the three farm Bills ongoing at that time, the AAP promised that it would take measures to address agrarian distress and said that it would lead to an end to farmer suicides.

The party also promised to punish the perpetrators of the desecration of the Sikh holy scripture and the subsequent police firing incident in 2015, an emotive issue for the Sikhs.

In its latest report card, the Bhagwant Mann government claimed to have fulfilled all its poll promises, the latest being cash transfer to women above 18 years of age.

Among its achievements mentioned in the card are Aam Aadmi Mohalla Clinics providing free treatment (up to Rs 10 lakh) to the poor, an improvement in the conditions of government schools, providing uninterrupted supply of free electricity to farmers even during daytime, an extension of the canal irrigation facility and the creation of thousands of jobs. It also recently declared Anandpur Sahib and Amritsar as holy cities.

However, the party's electoral chance will be hit due to the government's lack of success on some fronts. First, its inability to check the worrisome rise in gangsterism, ransom-seeking and daylight killings in the state. Mafias in sectors like transport, reta bajri (sand) , liquor and cable — named in the party's past manifestos continue to flourish. The AAP government, in its enthusiasm to acquire farmland for colonisation, is alleged to be in collusion with the land mafia.

Second, farmers remain debt-ridden and suicides are still being reported, though the numbers have gone down.

Third, despite the setting up of many more integrated deaddiction and rehabilitation centres across the state and arrests of drug peddlers, the government's allout war against the drug trade and menace has not met with much success, indicating an entrenched nexus.

Fourth, the government's record on combating corruption has not been up to the mark. Some senior party leaders, including legislators and ministers, have been forced to resign after facing corruption charges. The promised Jan Lokpal Bill never came about, nor was the existing office of Lokpal strengthened.

Fifth, the party's promise to end VIP culture remains hollow. Worse, state resources and assets are kept at the disposal of Delhi-based AAP leaders, a charge doing the rounds after the Raghav Chadha episode.

Sixth, incidents of terror attacks in recent years, including the grenade attacks on the intelligence wing headquarters, a police station and the Punjab BJP headquarters in Chandigarh, have ignited fear among people.

Seventh, the state's growing indebtedness is being blamed on the government's reckless populist policies and financial imprudence. The party's promise to bring a turnaround in the economy has fallen flat as salaries and pensions are being delayed.

Unemployment levels remain high, the migration of youth continues and the promise of providing a guaranteed minimum support price (MSP) for every crop remains a non-starter. Aam Aadmi Canteens also remain non-starters.

Eighth, while schools have become better, higher education institutions are in a pretty bad situation due to the lack of government support.

Given the fact that the AAP landslide win was not merely due to anti-incumbency against the entrenched Congress and Akali Dal but also due to a faint hope of the voters for AAP's ability to revive the lost glory of the beleaguered state, the forthcoming elections would be a tough battle in view of the party’s performance deficit.

This, despite the party winning byelections in Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, Chabbewal and Ludhiana West in the last two years. However, these results indicate that the party remains in electoral contention. An incumbent party remains the favourite in byelections.

The BJP has the advantage of having resources, a committed cadre and a core constituency. Being in power at the Centre for the third term, it now has a firm grip over the institutions and apparatuses. Armed with turncoat leaders, it would contest with full force in all Assembly seats, enthused by the 18% vote that it got in the 2024 elections.

The Congress, though ridden with factionalism, continues to retain decent support among both Hindus and Sikhs in the state. At the same time, with a weak high command, factional fights in the party are likely to intensify.

The Akali Dal, having lost its core constituency, despite its encouraging performance in the recent local elections, and its attack on the AAP, does not seem to have much of a chance. The upcoming Assembly election will be a three-party contest once again, but with a difference. The third party in the triangular contest will be the BJP, not the Akali Dal.

The electoral issues would be the same as the last time. They would figure in the manifestos of all parties. The tenor of campaign rhetoric will be as shrill as ever.

Views are personal