An unusual contest in Punjab

THIS weekend in Punjab, it isn’t just the turn of the season. The south-west monsoon, which feeds the lands which feeds the state and the rest of the country, is drawing to a close, as it is wont to do every year, ticking the box off the month of ‘sawan’ in the Hindu calendar. And so last night when the full moon rose, on Rakhar Punya or Raksha Bandhan, the last full moon of ‘sawan,’ its golden glory also contained the secret of the coming season — which political party will claim the crown of Punjab’s winter of content, with Assembly elections readying to be held a few months from now.

The seeds have been laid on Rakhar Punya at the historic Baba Bakala gurdwara — where the ninth Guru, Guru Tegh Bahadur, was revealed in 1664 — with all the political parties showcasing their best at rallies traditionally held on this day. For the first time, the BJP also held a rally, signalling its intent to reclaim Punjab, either as a partner with its former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal, or on its own.

With six months to go, the countdown has been accentuated by a Mood of the Nation poll brought out by the India Today group, which tells us that the BJP-led NDA is still up and away at 45.1% of the national vote share, compared to 39.1% for the INDIA bloc - certainly, there's no challenge to PM Modi here. Only the keen political watcher will note that the NDA vote share is down 2% from the 47% forecast this January and even lower than the 46.7% a year ago.

So what does this mean for elections slated to take place in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand alongside Punjab, early next year? Certainly, the BJP will be determined to maintain the winning streak it has held since the 2024 Lok Sabha poll — it has convincingly won several states since, whether Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, Bihar or West Bengal.

And now the BJP wants to win Punjab. It knows it will likely win Uttar Pradesh, despite the stealing in the Ram Mandir; and Manipur, despite a three-year ethnic conflict that remains unresolved; and Goa, which it has won three times in a row. Having won Bengal, the BJP’s ambition now extends to the other end of the country. That’s why Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan travelled to Baba Bakala to appeal to the people. Vote for us, he said, we will fix your problems.

Beginning with PM Modi, that message has been coming to Punjab for some time now. We will clear your debt, stop the drugs coming in via drones from across the border, revamp your agriculture, fix your schools, tar your roads and resolve the water-sharing issue with Haryana and Rajasthan. The unspoken message? Vote for the BJP.

Certainly, there’s something special about Punjab. Its people are capable of an extraordinary generosity — note the gurdwaras opening up to help CJP protesters in Delhi and Punjabis going to help Assam flood-hit in recent weeks — that is unequalled by any other state in the country. It shares a border with a difficult neighbour, but cannot understand why the BJP refuses to reopen the Kartarpur Sahib corridor. Unlike Bengal, which has also shared an uncomfortable relationship with Delhi most of the last 80 years since Independence, except for the last few months, Punjab has been chopped up twice — into Himachal Pradesh and Haryana — its self-image further battered by terrorism, the flight of industry and an agricultural revolution turning upon itself.

There’s a word that Punjabis use, oh-so-casually, about everything, but it taps into their deepest sense of being — the word is dhakka, and it translates into, ‘don’t bully me.’ Mere ton dhakke naal kam na karvao. Don't force me to do anything against my will.

It's a phrase every political party wanting to win Punjab should memorise and use as a slogan in their internal documents. The unsolicited moral of the story is, don’t salami-slice Punjab’s 2.1 crore voters — now 1.9 crore, after a loss of 20-odd lakh after they’ve been through the SIR grinder — by dissecting religion (Sikhs, Hindus), caste (Jats, Khatris, Ravidassias, Ramdassias, Valmikis etc), deras (Radha Soami, Sachkhand Ballan, Sacha Sauda), godmen (Sant Niranjan Dass, Ram Rahim), and believe you can add up the vote. Don’t trash the state you want to win — schools are bad, colleges are worse, the Buddha Nullah is a sewer, industries are discharging effluents without a care, gangsterism is rife, drug abuse is rampant — even if much of it is true. If you want to win the state, help it turn the corner. The state, clearly, needs your help.

As Punjab, then, enters the last six-month lap before polls are held, it’s increasingly clear that neither BJP nor SAD can individually whip up the enthusiasm to cross the finishing line. Interestingly, the PM realises this unusual state needs monitoring, which is why his newest pointman is his close confidant from Gujarat, the four-time MP from Navsari and the first non-Gujarati head of the Gujarat BJP, Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil. An alliance between the two former partners is likely not because they want it as much as they need it.

The contest is increasingly unusual. The ruling AAP in Punjab has taken a leaf out of PM Modi’s subsidies for women — what the BJP has successfully done elsewhere in the country, in Haryana and Maharashtra and Delhi, by putting money into women's bank accounts, AAP is doing in the state. The Congress, which may have otherwise put up a strong showing, must resign itself to third place, not least because Rahul Gandhi is unable to decide which leader should lead his party — his visit to the state in the coming week will finally put a stamp on the fragmentation. Meanwhile, speculation is rife about Waris Punjab De, led by the jailed MP Amritpal Singh, and why its influence is gaining ground.

The next six months are key before the vote is cast. That’s because Punjabis will evaluate political parties and their candidates not because of the colour of the turban they wear — or why raiding parties from neighbouring states only wear it sometimes — but whether they really mean what they say in rallies and speeches and street corner meetings. It’s a bit like turning the well-worn John F Kennedy slogan on its head : Ask not what Punjab can do for you, but what you can do for your beloved state.