BJP can’t afford to take Jammu for granted

THE national highway from Jammu to Kathua is peppered with one-liner BJP hoardings that seek to drive home simple ‘before’ and ‘after’ messages between 2014 — when the former state last voted, to the situation today — when the Union Territory goes to the polls again in a few days, after a whole decade.

Dark images of smoke, flailing hands and burning cars on one side of the hoardings have been juxtaposed with bright, shiny pictures that hope to symbolise hope and prosperity. A photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, central to the BJP’s advertising campaign, is splashed right across the frame.

Matam-Swagatam. Dar-Nidar. Shanti-Ashanti. And then the line, “shanti, sthirta aur vikas/Jammu ko Modi par vishwas.” Peace, stability and progress. That’s why Jammu believes in Modi.

The big question, of course, is whether Jammu will believe in Modi as well as the BJP’s local candidates staking their claim to 43 constituencies in this large and unwieldy region south of the Pir Panjal — although these Assembly elections are being fought for the first time in an altered, rejigged landscape after the recent delimitation of constituencies added six more seats to the region. Another five candidates will be nominated to the new Assembly — making up a total of 95 MLAs, compared to 87 before.

In an election where every seat counts, Jammu may well tip the balance between the winner and the loser.

Saam. Daam. Dand. Bhed. In this part of the world, where the international boundary with Pakistan is within spitting distance, all of Chanakya’s ancient wisdoms that bespeak endearment, bribery, punishment and betrayal are certainly being employed by all political parties to win the affections of the people. For the BJP, which won 25 seats in 2014, all from Jammu — but failed to get any from the Valley — the stakes are clearly enormous.

On the streets, there is confusion. If the “hum ko kya mila” war cry is allowed to further fester in the heart of pro-BJP Jammu, which votes on October 1, it might just tear down the fortress. Voters are dealing with the daily nightmare of awful traffic (Nitin Gadkari’s ministry is building bridges and new flyovers), while ‘smart city’ promises of covering open drains and cleaning up garbage dumps haven’t materialised. Pensions are delayed and government scheme beneficiaries find it difficult to negotiate faceless online processes which constantly break down — and then you have to bribe the same old people, anyway.

Moreover, the rest of India is travelling to the Valley in search of the latest Insta memory in its tulip gardens, summer on the Dal and winter in Gulmarg-Pahalgam. Everyone’s bypassing Jammu — 15 out of 25 trains, packed with tourists, go straight to the Vaishno Devi temple in Katra. Business is slow. The fear of the outsider is both real and unreal, especially because the few corporates wanting to invest here are still hesitating to invest large sums. Even the two spanking new AIIMS hospitals, one IIM and IIT were promised during the BJP-PDP government that lasted from 2015 to 2018.

None of this is new. Jammu is discovering today what UP and Bihar have known forever — that politicians promise things and then disappear into thin air. But of course Jammu doesn’t like being treated like a poor, second cousin.

This very real problem, the acute and palpable disconnect between the BJP leadership and its flock, can be fixed, of course, but the question is whether it’s already too late. (It helps the BJP that the Congress-National Conference alliance is either in deep disarray in these parts or doesn’t exist altogether.) The question over how much RSS ideologue Ram Madhav can do — he who had been instrumental in negotiating the BJP-PDP alliance, was subsequently mothballed by the Modi government and only recently pulled out of that offending corner — is a real one. PM Modi’s rallies across the UT over the next few days, the party desperately hopes, will help it turn the corner.

The question is why. Did the BJP take Jammu for granted, like an ageing, uncomplaining wife, precisely because Jammu had always voted in its favour? Both parties know that this is the heart of the ideological battle, the fire-burn that has for decades churned the heart of Hindutva.

When Bharatiya Jan Sangh ideologue Syama Prasad Mookerjee died allegedly of a heart attack in June 1953 at Lakhanpur, he was trying to enter Jammu to protest the implementation of Article 370 by the immensely powerful and charismatic duo of Jawaharlal Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah. That Article had constituted a reassurance to the Muslim-majority Kashmiri population — which had chosen to reject the two-nation theory by rejecting Pakistan and acceding to India – that they would be safe in a Hindu-majority India.

Mookerjee’s death stirred the RSS-BJP into making the abrogation of Article 370 part of its core ideology, but the debate would soon, more or less, falter into history. The rest of India had so much else to do. There it would lie, unclaimed, until Modi, in August 2019, decided to permanently banish the argument. Article 370 was abrogated because the RSS-BJP believed that Hindu-majority Jammu deserved better than to play second fiddle to the Kashmiri Muslim elite that was predominant in the Valley.

Jammu had always held up its side of the bargain. It celebrated on the streets when Article 370 was revoked — in contrast, as we all know, the Valley was shut down, the Internet was shut down, protests were disallowed and political leaders arrested.

That’s why the coming elections, hard-fought on the ground, constituency by constituency, mohalla by mohalla, village by village, are so important. Will Jammu give the BJP what it wants — enough seats it can use as a lever to negotiate a return to power in the newly refurbished Jammu & Kashmir? Or will it have to settle for less, with the region telling its mentors to go back and play by different rules. To bury Article 370 forever, but to also reach across the ideological divide and join the Valley and Plains together. To bridge the Himalayan gap. To recharge the whole of Jammu & Kashmir.