BJP faces spirited challenge in Uttar Pradesh

Saba Naqvi

Senior Journalist

The crucial Uttar Pradesh elections are not going according to plan for the ruling BJP. In a state with changing demographics, this battle has variations as the state votes in seven phases. But in the first phase of polling on February 10, the Jat voter, alienated from the BJP after the farm protests, created a momentum that has kickstarted the opposition’s game. In districts such as Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Baghpat, Meerut and parts of Mathura, this assertive peasant caste came out in large numbers and almost surrounded polling centres, exhorting people to vote for the SP-RLD alliance.

Worryingly for the BJP, the second-phase seats have voted in districts with the largest Muslim population in the state. The figure goes up to 50 to 60 per cent on some seats in Moradabad, Rampur and Amroha, besides substantial numbers in other districts. Although multiple Muslim candidates contest on each seat, most minority voters have coalesced around the SP that is seen as a winning front. Besides, this is also the area where in the face of the BJP wave of 2017, the SP had held on to some seats.

The third phase of voting on February 20 stretches across swathes of west UP to the central parts of the state. This phase also covers Etah, Etawah and Mainpuri districts with a large Yadav presence. Like the Jats, the Yadavs are very enthusiastic about voting out the BJP. Akhilesh Yadav, the former CM and SP chief, also stands from the seat of Karhal in Mainpuri district and his presence can be a force multiplier in the third phase. In the complex socio-political realities of Uttar Pradesh, there are communities that can be seen as ground influencers and Jats and Yadavs fall into that category. Historically, both caste groups have played a role in bringing about social and political change and transforming the power dynamic. This means that it’s not the number of their own votes alone that counts, but their capacity to change the atmospherics and chemistry. In the last elections, many Yadavs too had supported the BJP but they are now returning to the SP and whipping up a tailwind.

The fight therefore is intense for every seat. The ground machinery of the BJP is superior. They have mapped each constituency and cadres are making an outreach in a systematic way, door to door and through social media. There is a scientific system they are following, that includes lists of their own supporters and an attempt to chip off individuals and/or enhance divisions in the opposition vote. They are operating with a better skill set and statistically, the BJP is formidable in the state, winning 40 per cent of the vote in the last assembly poll and nearly 50 per cent in the 2019 election. In the last seven years, with the PM shifting his seat to Varanasi and with Yogi Adityanath chosen to be the chief minister, Uttar Pradesh has also been seen to be the new Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat.

But in this election, the communal chatter on the ground has not reached the threshold necessary to create a so-called Hindu mobilisation that historically helps the BJP. Yet the national party’s core voter stands with them as does a section of the workers who have lived off free rations in the months of the pandemic. What is different is that the BJP is not really being heard as many of the issues they are raising are not finding a resonance with people. This means that even voters who like the CM and PM have no great recall right now about what their agenda really is. The PM’s recent rallies, such as the one in Saharanpur, drew poor crowds and a party that usually excels in creating a narrative is having to respond to the agenda set by the opposition. Yet, some of the weaker sections of society, that have been the beneficiaries of welfare schemes, are being mobilised quietly to vote for the ruling party.

The SP-led opposition conversely finds method in a sort of chaotic madness that can be seen in a campaign that varies from seat to seat. These parties have given tickets to those seen to be the strongest candidates and then left it to the nominees to subsequently organise the campaign. But the SP is also a rooted party in the state and its way of marking a presence has been to distribute thousands of red caps. Across the state, one now sees red caps bobbing up and down. It is a psychologically strong way to mark its presence. So, while the BJP cadre is moving with spreadsheets and a plan, the SP worker is there with a cap and lots of josh (passion). Crucially, the party believes it has offset the BJP’s advantage of being in power by the promise to revive the old-age pension scheme for all retired government servants and teachers; the state machinery will not therefore be hostile, the SP hopes.

The SP seems to have understood the skill of narrative creation. So much so that after the first phase of voting, Akhilesh Yadav decided to withdraw spokespersons from television debates for the time being. The thinking is that the election speaks for itself when all the alliance leaders are giving regular interviews and being covered on the campaign trails. The SP does not want to be side-tracked by debates created by a section of the broadcast media that is seen to be working to help the BJP.

By the time the fourth phase kicks in and proceeds till the seventh and last phase on March 7, the election will move to regions where the number of forward castes, such as Thakurs and Brahmins increases. Both social groups generate momentum and influence others to vote. It is in these parts, extending from central to east UP, that the SP-led alliance hopes to pitch the election as backward versus forward, and play on the original Mandal formula. So far, the alliance has the momentum and the BJP the machinery. Whether the BJP loses a hundred seats or the entire state, it is facing a very spirited challenge that’s actually grown from a severe economic downturn.

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