BJP searching desperately for new allies

AHEAD of the fast-approaching Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA is in the news for the wrong reasons, with doubts being cast upon a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The fag-end of 2018 delivered a body blow to the BJP in the form of loss of power in the key states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The shock defeat has set in motion its own dynamics. The ruling alliance is showing never-before cracks in dealing with key issues arising out of ‘non-communication’ between the ‘strong leader’ and the allies, which were left in a ‘take it or leave it’ situation till not long ago.

The problem with the BJP is that it has repeatedly believed in its own slogans and come to grief because of that. Before the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm, the then ruling party sincerely believed in ‘India Shining’. Sonia Gandhi pricked the bubble easily by playing the alliance card deftly.

Now, Modi’s pet project of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ has not only boomeranged, but also given rise to a resurgent Congress, whose leader Rahul Gandhi is making all the right noises.

Paradoxically, the NDA’s woes appear to be never-ending. What can one say about the health of a coalition in which the second largest constituent (Shiv Sena) insists that it is not bothered about whether the tie-up happens or not unless issues close to its heart, such as the construction of the Ram temple and a fair deal to farmers, are addressed well in time?

Some of its allies in Bihar have cautioned the leadership that it should stick to the path of development, as laid down by the alliance, and refrain from taking up any other issue which is not on its agenda, a clear reference to the vexed Ayodhya matter.

Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah, the two-man army that overran many ‘enemy territories’ in the past five years, is suddenly finding itself running out of steam. The irony is that having tom-tommed itself as the world’s largest political party till some time ago, the BJP is desperately searching for allies.

The BJP is looking weak and exasperated, while its allies, which were ignored, humiliated or harassed, are now fighting back with a vengeance as they know that their worth has suddenly grown. It is time for them to demand their pound of flesh. How else can one interpret the letter from young Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, wondering why he is not listing out the ‘benefits’ of demonetisation for the allies to tell the people ahead of the Lok Sabha elections? No one in the ruling dispensation could have dared such a veiled dig at the PM.

In the changed scenario, Modi and Shah are projecting that ‘people are most precious’ as they seek to keep the flock together. Earlier, the view appeared to be that the allies are like the ‘extras’ of Bollywood who are needed to be around like showpieces so that the ‘hero’ is depicted in a brighter light and runs the show singlehandedly.

“Modi is a people’s leader, dynamic, dedicated and determined, who reflects the aspirations and hopes of over a billion Indians” was the projection, signalling that others play second fiddle, remain low profile, be content with what is offered and remain in the silent mode.

All that is changing painfully for the BJP as it is attempting to grapple with the challenges brought in by the ‘tsunami’ of defeat in the recent Assembly polls.

The BJP, which secured 22 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2014, has finalised seat-sharing in the state, agreeing to contest just 17 seats while leaving an equal number for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD-U. The development makes it crystal clear that Modi and Shah are bending over backwards in the wake of the resurgent ‘mahagathbandhan’ of the RJD-Congress-RLSP and other parties. The recent bypoll verdict in adjacent Jharkhand, where the Congress won convincingly, is a wake-up call for the ruling BJP, which lost two byelections earlier in the year.

Maharashtra, the second most important state after Uttar Pradesh with 48 Lok Sabha seats, would remain the test case on the flexibility or otherwise of the beleaguered BJP.

The growing bargaining power of the allies has emboldened the Shiv Sena, which is seeking to extract the maximum from the BJP. Perceived as the ‘most wronged’ party in the alliance, the Shiv Sena is having a field day in attacking, targeting and humiliating the BJP and its top leader. In fact, Modi is the favourite punching bag of the Sena, which in recent times has praised Rahul Gandhi in a manner not done by even most of the allies of the grand old party. Recently, Uddhav Thackeray used Rahul’s pet phrase of ‘chowkidar chor hai’ to target the Prime Minister.

The Shiromani Akali Dal, another old ally of the BJP, made it plain by telling the ruling party that it is time it was ‘generous’ with the Sena and built the rainbow coalition of parties which were part of the Vajpayee-led NDA. “Bring the present, former as also estranged allies together on a war footing. Give the much-needed new deal to the farmer and work for the betterment of the youth”, goes the prescription as time is running out fast.

After parting of ways with TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, the BJP has become virtually non-existent in South India, barring pockets of influence in Karnataka. Biju Janata Dal-ruled Odisha and Mamata Banerjee-controlled West Bengal are being seen as the new greener pastures for the saffron party, which is facing resistance in parts of the Hindi heartland due to the Congress comeback.

With the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party set for an alliance in UP, it has dawned on the powers that be that only help from allies could ensure a second term for Modi. But the fact is that the alliance issue is turning out to be a hard nut to crack as regional parties realise that 2019 is a different cup of tea than 2014.

The BJP’s desperation to find new allies shows that Modi magic alone won’t work in the Lok Sabha polls.