Delhi gone, all AAP eyes now on Punjab
It is not easy for a party that rode to power on the lofty plank of good governance to come to terms with a crushing defeat. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) burst onto the scene in 2012 on the back of a dubious anti-corruption campaign, made a mark in the 2013 Delhi Assembly polls and then went on to accumulate huge political capital. What clicked with voters of Delhi in 2015 as well as 2020 was its promising agenda — zero tolerance to corruption, investment in basics such as education, healthcare and public transport, and establishing an accessible and responsive bureaucracy.
The party came down with a thud in the recent Delhi polls for not delivering on some of these pledges. Its leaders failed to confront the BJP, which unleashed its mammoth propaganda machinery that flattened AAP and crucially, its founder and leader, Arvind Kejriwal. There is no respite in sight for him and his colleagues. The CAG report on the Delhi excise policy, tabled in the Assembly earlier this week, has flagged glaring irregularities that have further dented the party’s image.
For Kejriwal, AAP’s national convener, the loss in Delhi is a rude shock as well as a wake-up call. His party had routed the BJP and the Congress in two successive polls. The Delhi ‘governance model’ he crafted and implemented even won adherents in the BJP camp who were otherwise wedded to Hindutva and their brand of nationalism. Having lost its underpinning of governance, AAP now exists as a hollowed-out entity. It faces the onerous task of retaining power in Punjab, the only state it governs at present.
Days before the verdict was out, Jasmine Shah, a close aide of Kejriwal, while releasing his book, ‘The Delhi Model: A Bold New Roadmap to Building a Developed India’, said in a statement, “For the first time in India, here is a model of governance that prioritises investing in the masses, in the people of India.” That boast flew out of the window on February 8. Some AAP insiders believe that it is time to reassess the leadership and restructure the organisation to regain public trust.
But it was not the battered and bruised AAP in Delhi that figured immediately on Kejriwal’s radar. Following the poll reversal, he held a meeting with Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and state party MLAs in Delhi, ostensibly to discuss how to make Punjab a ‘model state’ in the run-up to the 2027 elections. AAP insiders regard Punjab as the party’s ‘best bet’ despite the state government being besieged by problems such as a run-down economy, compounded by a lack of Central funds. The Mann government is also bogged down by the drug menace, farm distress, the sand mafia and corruption, all of which have tied the CM’s hands while offering direct financial aid to women and increasing subsidies. The government is also being criticised for securing loans at a high rate of interest and amending property tax laws amid mounting debt. The prospect of some AAP MLAs jumping ship is also not ruled out.
Has Kejriwal applied his mind to such crucial concerns that have electoral ramifications? He is too much of a political animal to leave the affairs of Punjab to Mann and confine himself to rejuvenating the party in Delhi, where he is no longer even an MLA. The fact that he convened the Punjab meeting promptly shows that he is unwilling to rely entirely on Mann, a first-time CM.
Kejriwal has entrusted Jasmine Shah with retooling Punjab, even as state observers have cautioned against Delhi’s alleged overt interference and diversion of the state’s resources for AAP’s campaigns in other states. At the end of the day, Punjab’s political dynamics are distinct. While Mann recently said his government would focus on education, healthcare, electricity and water and turned the spotlight on initiatives like the closure of toll plazas and the abolition of numerous pensions for MLAs, do these assurances and achievements add up to a persuasive Punjab model? Doling out freebies alone may not make for a winning formula.
Mann’s main obstacle is inadequate industrial investments that have not generated enough revenue to create infrastructure such as roads. Although the Punjabi diaspora is unlikely to make the state significantly investible, AAP’s outreach to the expats is continuing.
Even as Punjab has become the centre of AAP’s attention, the reversal in the Capital has curtailed Kejriwal’s soaring national ambitions that were evident in the Gujarat and Goa Assembly polls in 2022. AAP bagged five seats and got a vote share of 12.91 per cent in Gujarat, but its projected leaders Isudan Gadhvi and Gopal Italia lost their seats. In Goa, AAP won two seats with a 6.77 vote share. AAP is silent on foraying into Bihar, which votes later this year, even as it is confused about remaining with the INDIA bloc nationally and notionally. Its relations with the Congress have only worsened after the latter targeted Kejriwal during campaigning in Delhi. The Congress is also AAP’s main rival in Punjab.
AAP began as a party that spanned the social arc in its outreach to the affluent, the professionals and the less well-off. The Delhi outcome revealed that with a 44 per cent vote share, it retained its base among the less well-off and the Muslims, although the BJP worked hard to win over the Dalits.
Kejriwal has a long way to go before he can re-appropriate the anti-corruption plank and restore AAP’s standing as a party of good governance. The BJP will not give him an easy passage. His salvation will lie in consolidating his social base — or whatever is left of it.
