State verdicts redraw India’s political map

The verdict in the four states (Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal) and Puducherry has resulted in a change in governments in three states (West Bengal, Kerala and TN) and the retention of the governments in two states (Assam and Puducherry). These verdicts will have deep implications for national politics. They indicate that for winning elections, parties need a combination of factors: leadership, party workers on the ground, strategy of political mobilisation, picking up the right issue to connect with the voters, work done by the government and a credible promise to voters. The results indicate that welfare schemes or freebies alone may not guarantee the victory for a party.

These victories have helped the BJP form the government in one more state and the party has moved ahead in establishing its political dominance. The defeat of two strong regional parties which had posed strong resistance to the BJP -- the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu -- raises the bigger question about the future of regional parties in Indian politics in the coming years.

It also raises the question about the path ahead for the INDIA alliance partners since two of its strong allies, the TMC and the DMK, are not as strong as they were before the elections. This fact is important as from INDIA alliance’s point of view, two important states -- UP and Punjab -- go to the polls early next year and other states like Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh having elections later.

The NDA retained power in Assam and Puducherry, where it was the incumbent party. Not only did the NDA register a massive victory in Assam, winning 102 of the 126 seats, the BJP alone managed to get a majority, winning 82 seats with a 37.8% vote share. Considering that the incumbent governments lost power (Kerala, TN and West Bengal), this is a significant achievement for the ruling NDA alliance in these two states. While many factors contributed to the victory of the NDA alliance in these two states, it should be seen as an endorsement of the work done by the ruling NDA alliance in these states.

The defeat of the LDF government in Kerala, the DMK alliance government in TN and the TMC government in West Bengal is a clear sign of strong anti-incumbency due to increased dissatisfaction of the voters with the governance in these states. One should not forget that the TMC was in power in West Bengal for 15 years while both the LDF in Kerala and DMK alliance in TN were in power for the last one decade.

But there is no thumb rule of anti-incumbency if a party has been in power for very long. We have seen governments being in power for very long periods. The Left front had been in power in West Bengal for a long 34 years (1977-2011). The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1998, the Sikkim Democratic Front ruled Sikkim for 25 years ((1994-2019) and the Biju Janata Dal was in power in Odisha for 24 years (since 2000) before being defeated in 2024.

But a big negative swing of votes against the TMC in West Bengal, the DMK alliance in TN and the LDF in Kerala is a sign of dissatisfaction with the incumbent parties in these states. In Bengal, the TMC vote share declined by 8.2%. In TN, the DMK alliance vote share declined by 13.9% while in Kerala, the vote share of the LDF declined by 7.6%.

Impact on national politics

The victory in Bengal is extremely significant for the BJP as the party had faced strong resistance from the TMC in the past. This victory has also helped the BJP in expanding its political wings. Now, the BJP, either alone or with allies, is the ruling party in 22 states. These states account for nearly 78% of the country’s population. This is not a small achievement for the BJP which had governments only in seven states when it formed the government at the Centre in 2014.

In 2014, the Congress, either alone or with its allies, was in power in 14 states while the regional parties were in power in seven states. Twelve years later, in 2026, the Congress and its allies have governments in six states while the regional parties have governments in three states.

It is also important to note that except for Jharkhand, where the Jharkhand Mukti Morch, along with its allies, is in the government, none of the INDIA alliance partners are in government in any other state. Not that the parties can’t play an important role in politics while being in the opposition. They can. But there is a huge difference in the morale of leaders and party workers when in government and in opposition.

The Congress has lost elections in Assam, but there was very little hope for the party in Assam. In Bengal, it was almost a non-entity while in TN, it was a junior partner in the DMK alliance. But the victory in Kerala is important for the Congress for two reasons. One, the party will have a government in one more state. So these elections add to the tally of Congress’s own governments. Second, after the defeat of the TMC and the DMK, the Congress’s victory could help the INDIA alliance settle the question of who should lead the alliance, a question which keeps popping up now and then. At least for a few years.

(Views are personal: The writer is a Professor, election analyst and psephologist.)