India passive on Sri Lanka

THE mystique of colour revolutions is that the endgame is unpredictable. The only success story so far is, tragically, Ukraine. The US staged a coup in 2014, after having failed to get the desired outcome in the Orange Revolution, a series of protests and political events from late November 2004 to January 2005.

The US forms small groups in such situations to leverage global governance as a tool for geopolitical games.

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Georgia is cosying up to Russia again, while in Kyrgyzstan, there have been three attempts but the end-result has been a pro-Russian government in Bishkek. Sri Lanka bears similarity with Kyrgyzstan — the military will not back the colour revolution. In every respect, the transition in Colombo has taken place ‘through democratic means and values, established institutions and constitutional framework’ — to quote the MEA spokesman. Indeed, the US and its Anglophone partners have no reason to be angry with the ‘rules-based order’.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe has chosen Dinesh Gunewardena as PM. The two veterans complement each other. Wickremesinghe has an international profile and was known for being a pro-western reformer, who had a voter base among urban middle classes. He is suave, urbane and has an amiable personality. Gunewardena, on the contrary, is a Trotskyite who combines varied experience from trade unionism to Parliament, from parliamentary to the extra-parliamentary, from Opposition to government, who has a Colombo elite constituency and a broad Sinhala Buddhist base (which Wickremesinghe lacks).

If Wickremesinghe leaned toward neoliberal elitism, Gunewardena is a progressive nationalist, strong opponent of economic neoliberalism and a staunch defender of social welfare and working class rights. Educated in western universities, he is one of the biggest names in the country’s political history, the son of the late Philip Gunawardena, the iconic father-figure of the nation’s socialist movement.

Unlike with Wickremesinghe, none dare trifle with Gunawardena in or out of Parliament. He combines a steely temperament with civility, mischievous charm and a warm smile, and will be a tough nut to crack for the IMF juggernaut — or, if push comes to shove on the streets of Colombo. Yet, both Wickremesinghe and Gunawardena hail from Sri Lanka’s privileged upper class and were schoolmates — products of Royal College in Colombo, the country’s Eton. Both enjoyed a longstanding friendship with the Rajapaksas who turned to them in moments of distress.

Delhi ought to be quietly pleased, since Wickremesinghe is a good friend, while Gunawardena will be able to balance the Sinhala and Tamil nationalist concerns — with Sri Lankan interests as a whole — who knows that India must be kept on board and that the principle of devolution cannot be renounced, and the Provincial Council system cannot be dismantled. But there is confusion, since the self-serving Indian narrative about ‘Chinese debt trap’ in Sri Lanka lies in tatters.

In reality, it is the western countries’ commercial lenders and multilateral financial institutions who are responsible for Sri Lanka’s foreign debt, especially the ‘vulture funds’ whose natural habitat is the Wall Street. The western creditors sold Sri Lanka’s debt to vulture funds, who have proceeded to exploit every rupee and cent. Logically, the IMF’s prime task ought to be to coordinate creditors to speed up debt restructuring. But it is more interested in Sri Lanka’s future economic and political trajectory — although, paradoxically, commercial creditors and multilateral financial institutions are the major lenders behind Sri Lanka’s foreign debt (almost 80%).

The US typically forms small groups in such situations, based on ‘common values’, to leverage global governance as a tool for geopolitical games. Its game plan is to gain control over Colombo’s economic and foreign policies and to integrate Sri Lanka into its military-strategic offensive against China. There is no question that powerful forces are backing the protesters.

The protests cascaded even as Gotabaya Rajapaksa was about to send a high-level delegation to Moscow to negotiate help. Tass reported that various Russian ministries had scheduled week-long meetings with the Sri Lankan team. Strangely, the Anglophone ambassadors in Colombo made an appeal to the security forces to allow the protests to continue! For the first time, the Christian church joined anti-government protests!

The Anglophone countries also took active interest in politicking. Two days prior to Wickremesinghe’s election, the ambassadors of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (‘Five Eyes’) jointly met Speaker Abeywardena! However, Wickremesinghe did get elected. On Friday, the US ambassador met him over the eviction of protesters in Colombo city square by the security forces overnight, she reportedly rebuked him and expressed grave concern over the ‘unnecessary and deeply troubling escalation’ of violence against the protesters — although Wickremesinghe is the constitutionally elected head of state of a sovereign country! Such haughty behaviour betrays frustration over the outcome of the ‘regime change’.

The Sri Lankan political elite has no misconceptions about an IMF-driven economic strategy for their country — that it’ll be a recipe for disaster. Nor do they want to be another South Asian cog in the wheel of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy. The Wickremesinghe-Gunawardena duo will not compromise on strategic autonomy. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s whole-hearted support for the new dispensation should be understood in this context.

India shouldn’t be passive toward the neo-colonial Anglo-Saxon conspiracy in its backyard. The crisis is about foreign exchange shortage due to a combination of adverse circumstances. A respite through debt rescheduling will help. What Sri Lanka needs is a new development strategy suitable for national conditions.