Iran regime change may elude Trump

AFTER the June 2025 attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership, the US declared the Iranian nuclear programme as “obliterated”. A fresh onslaught now can hardly be justified on the same grounds. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination leads to the unavoidable conclusion that the real objective, with most of the ruling families in the Gulf endorsing it, is an Iranian regime change.

Oman mediated and encouraged dialogue for a peaceful settlement of US-Iran differences. Reportedly, a deal had almost been finalised. Iran was to hand over its stockpile, containing 300-400 kg of 60% enriched uranium. This is a step away from 90% enrichment, which is required to produce 10 or more nuclear weapons. The attack may trigger that move.

Unlike in June last year, Iran was now prepared to immediately retaliate, having rebuilt its defences and re-equipped its missile arsenal. China apparently provided new-generation defensive and offensive weapons. This would enable China to test the effectiveness of its missiles against US naval assets and anti-missile defence systems. This is crucial if it militarily attempts to occupy Taiwan, which it claims as its territory. There have also been reports of Russia upgrading the Iranian air defence systems. In the past, Iran had S-300 systems but not the more advanced S-400.

Any military attack must have clear objectives and exit ramps. In June 2025, the US ended its intervention claiming total destruction of the Iranian nuclear programme. If the objective now is regime change, then multiple factors exist. Firstly, Iran is not Venezuela, where a pliant leadership immediately emerged after President Maduro’s abduction by American special forces. The US intelligence successfully exploited divisions within the ruling establishment in Venezuela.

In Iran, the ruling dispensation is an alliance between the clerical order and the pro-regime Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Assisting them is the Basij, a paramilitary volunteer militia with 600,000 active members and 25 million reserves. The late Supreme Leader realised the threat to his life. However, he defied and led, while creating multiple layers of successors to all sensitive leadership positions. It also appears that instructions were issued to officers at the operational level to act without guidance from the higher ranks. This was to ensure that the chain of command’s severance did not stall planned retaliation.

What happens next? The IRGC has announced massive retaliatory attacks. In turn, US President Donald Trump has warned that “we will hit them with a force that has never been seen before“. There is widespread public anger in Iran over Khamenei’s death. The US assumption, based on Israeli arguments, that the assassination would make the Iranian regime collapse is probably mistaken. Although constitutionally the next Supreme Leader would be approved by the Assembly of Experts, a three-member interim leadership council will govern the country for the time being. It includes Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and the head of the judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehei.

According to a February 28 YouGov poll, only 33% of the Americans support the US attack on Iran, with 45% opposing it. Democrats are protesting over the US Congress being bypassed before starting a war. Consequently, President Trump may seek an early off-ramp to claim victory and end the campaign, although his real aim of regime change may not be achieved. It is likely that the late Supreme Leader’s successor may be either another cleric, who is as or even more committed to religion-inspired governance, or a serving/former IRGC member.

A prompt ceasefire, however, is unlikely. Iran would want to be seen extracting revenge from Israel and the US. This can mean considerable damage to institutions and infrastructure in Israel. The attack on all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, except Oman, is foxing analysts. They wonder why Iran would alienate neighbours which had announced that their airspace and territory were barred for launching any attack on Iran.

The UAE and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020. They did not withdraw even after Israel’s massacre of Palestinians in Gaza. Furthermore, many nations have functioning US air or naval bases, including some with radars to track Iranian missiles. Also, there are news reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been surreptitiously goading the Americans, alongside Israel, to decapitate the Iranian regime and disarm it, especially its nuclear programme.

The rivalry between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is a historical one. Each claims the leadership of the Islamic world. Of the 12 Shia Imams, only one is buried in Iran (at Mashad). Saudis have ignored many Imam burial spots in their country. Having weakened Iran’s surrogates like Hezbollah, besides overthrowing Syria’s Shia Assad regime, Israel has focused on deposing the Iranian Islamic regime.

Iran is drawing the GCC countries into its standoff with the US and Israel. Dubai, after being targeted by Iranian missiles, might lose its charm as a tax-free haven as well as a trading and investment centre. Iran wants the American “puppets” to face reality and end their double game. Unless the Iranian regime gets replaced by a pro-West government, stability may not return to the Gulf anytime soon.

India also stands to lose from these developments. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unwillingness to criticise Israel during his recent visit, days before the attacks, has robbed India of its neutrality. Iran is unlikely to forget it. Having ostensibly aligned with one side, Delhi will lose leverage if Iran’s Islamic regime survives. In danger are security and remittances of the diaspora, Dubai and the Gulf as India’s commercial entrepôt, and the reliability and cost of energy supplies. Just when the Taliban need military and economic support to fight Pakistan, Indian supply routes via Iran are blocked.

The BJP may find ideological affinity with Zionism, but Sufism, which blended Islamic mysticism with Shia Islam, inspired the Bhakti movement. Sufism and Sikhism have deep historical and mystical links. That is why 130 of Baba Farid’s sloks and shabads are in the Guru Granth Sahib. Thus, the developments in the Gulf and West Asia have economic and spiritual relevance for India.

Hopefully Trump is merely bluffing and would allow Iran a face-saving retaliation without escalating the conflict. In that case, a quick off-ramp may be available. Otherwise, chaos and massive economic disruption are inevitable.