Islamabad’s moment on the global stage

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addressed the National Assembly in the early hours of June 15. He exulted at what he claimed was Pakistan’s successful mediation between Iran and the US. The two countries had, a few hours earlier, agreed to extend their ceasefire for 60 days. More importantly, the Strait of Hormuz was to open and the US naval blockade of the Sea of Oman was also to be lifted. The latter prevented maritime traffic from Iranian ports and that country’s shoreline.Sharif’s office posted the highlights of his speech on X. He emphasised that “the prestige and honour Allah has bestowed upon Pakistan today is something nations seek for centuries”. Sharif expressed “deep gratitude” to the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China, the US and Iran for “demonstrating immense wisdom, prudence, and patience under extremely difficult circumstances.”While congratulating the “Pakistani nation” on this development, he particularly focussed on the role of Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. His office stated that he “particularly praised the extraordinary role played by Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who devoted day and night to bring an end to the war and securing peace.” He said that “there were some critical moments when negotiations seemed close to falling apart, but the Field Marshal remained steadfast which ensured this monumental success.”It is noteworthy that Shehbaz Sharif omitted the UAE from the list of the countries mentioned by him. That was both because relations between Iran and the UAE have been particularly bad but also because Pakistan-UAE ties have been going through a rough phase. reports suggesting that the UAE recalled the $3.5-billion oil facility loan from Pakistan during the Iran war is illustrative of their mutual difficulties.There have been reports of the UAE pledging to fund Iran’s reconstruction, but recent contacts between the two countries have obviously not obliterated the bitterness that Pakistan feels towards the UAE. Besides, Pakistan is solidly with the Saudis and their difficulties with the UAE cast a shadow on UAE-Pakistan ties.Many countries have thanked Pakistan and some other states that helped Iran and the US mediate the MoU. It will be signed in Switzerland on June 19. Interestingly, Shehbaz Sharif said in his speech to the National Assembly that the MoU’s signing ceremony would be hosted by Pakistan. As of now, no other country has endorsed Sharif’s claim. In any event, Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who visited Tehran often during these weeks, and above all, Field Marshal Asim Munir can be expected to be present at the signing ceremony. Certainly, many Pakistani and foreign eyes will be on Trump’s favourite Field Marshal. It is also possible that Trump will personally praise him before or during the signing ceremony.Munir’s stock has risen in Pakistan and internationally. Shehbaz Sharif’s obsequiousness towards him is reflective of the broader political class’s attitude. As Munir’s reputation soars, the greatest loser is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. He has been in jail since the May 9, 2023 unrest involving PTI members. The judiciary has not shown the courage to release him. Now, the chances that he will leave prison in the foreseeable future are remote.Pakistan has seen many army chiefs who have held the country in their grip. Most of these — Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zia-ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf — ruled directly. Others ruled Pakistan from behind a civilian purdah. They did so with different degrees of effectiveness and ruthlessness.Munir, who fancies himself as a man of destiny, will now unhesitatingly seek to fashion Pakistan according to his beliefs. These include his passion for the Islamic faith, a staunch commitment to the two-nation theory, which, among other reasons, has instilled in him animosity towards India. Hence, the chances of a strategic shift in Pakistan towards India or an abandonment of its reliance on calibrated terror against this country is not on the cards.The real issue for Pakistan is if it can convert the goodwill it has garnered to transform the country’s economy. This is unlikely because it will require structural changes which will have to begin with the Pakistan army becoming less extractive. The fact is that the Pakistan army is the biggest obstacle in the path of Pakistan becoming an economically stable and prosperous state. The army pursues confrontation both against what it perceives to be the country’s external and internal adversaries. It has shunned the way of reconciliation of interests.Besides, it has never allowed democratic processes to become consolidated because that will erode its corporate interests. As scholar Ayesha Siddiqa has brilliantly shown, over the years, the army is Pakistan’s largest business and industrial conglomerate with a finger in every pie! Munir will comprehensively consolidate the army’s interests.Some sections in India may suffer from a degree of heartburn if the US-Iran signing ceremony proceeds as announced by Shehbaz Sharif. This is especially likely because of the bitterness generated by the Pahalgam terrorist attack and India’s Operation Sindoor. A more mature way to handle Pakistan’s mediation success would be to focus on the advantages that are accruing to India and the rest of the world with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and not deriding Pakistan. As a major power, India must demonstrably remain strong-willed, but never appear churlish. It would not be inappropriate for Indian strategic analysts to point out that international goodwill could encourage Pakistan’s leadership to steer the country to a modern and progressive direction.There is a sliver of a possibility that Munir, like some of his predecessors, may ask Trump to intervene in India-Pakistan ties, especially on J&K. Pakistan has already earned his goodwill for praising his intervention during the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict. It would be prudent for India to quietly caution the US against attempting to involve itself in India-Pakistan matters and also to inform it that if Pakistan seeks to provoke India, it will meet with a firm response.

Islamabad’s moment on the global stage

As a major power, India must demonstrably remain strong-willed, but never appear churlish

Vivek Katju

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