It’s advantage BJP in Haryana, Maharashtra

Rasheed Kidwai
Senior Journalist & Author

The BJP-led NDA is never short of showcasing virtues of holding simultaneous polls. But when it came to holding the Jharkhand Assembly polls along with those of Haryana and Maharashtra, it developed cold feet. 

There has been no plausible explanation as to why Chief Minister Raghubir Das did not toy with the idea of recommending the dissolution of the House a month ahead of its schedule. As per the constitutional provisions, an elected government, enjoying majority in the House, can advance polls by six months. The North Block, which has been proactive under the leadership of BJP chief Amit Shah, too, has maintained a stoic silence. 

Political grapevine has it that advancing Jharkhand polls did not get the go-ahead as the political situation in the state is not conducive, as in Haryana or Maharashtra. This is one state where alliance talks are still on among the Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), RJD and the Left parties. The Congress alliance with the JVMP and JMM was, however, not rewarding in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as the BJP had walked away with 12 out of the 14 seats. 

An opinion poll conducted by ABP News-C-Voter has shown that both the Manohar Lal Khattar- and Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP-NDA governments are set to return home with ease. The survey findings for Haryana predict 78 seats for the BJP and a single digit tally of eight for the Congress out of 90 Assembly seats in Haryana. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine is projected to get 205 out of 288 Assembly seats. 

The opposition seems happy to be unhappy. Going by this survey’s indication, the electoral chances of the Congress in Haryana and Maharashtra appear to be next to nothing. But the party is making no attempt to reach out to anti-BJP parties in these states to put up a joint fight. Perhaps, the failure of the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls has had a demoralising effect on the entire opposition. 

In Parliament, too, there were no signs of floor coordination on triple talaq or even on gaining control of the parliamentary panels that were constituted recently. 

The Trinamool Congress was treated shabbily, but it found itself protesting alone.

The BSP, which has some presence in Maharashtra and Haryana, is going solo in the coming round of Assembly polls. BSP supremo Mayawati is not sitting idle. Rather, she plans to consolidate her traditional support base of Dalits in these states. 

The development is bad news for the Congress which has bravely made Selja, a Dalit, as Haryana PCC chief. The painstakingly-worked out efforts to retain Bhupinder Singh Hooda have averted a split in the Haryana Congress, but the grand old party would be struggling to get 30-odd Assembly seats in the state.  

Even as Maharashtra gets ready for the polls, the Congress, facing many desertions, is left wondering whether its reliance on Maratha votes would help it put up a credible fight. A Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance has been worked out. Since 1999, the Congress has contested three successive elections with the NCP. During the 2014 Assembly elections, the NCP broke the alliance literally a few hours prior to the announcement of polls, leaving the Congress in the lurch. The Congress-NCP ugly spat hugely helped the BJP to come to power, reducing its ally, the Shiv Sena, to a poor second spot. The BJP had won 122 seats in the 288-member Assembly, while the Shiv Sena won 62 seats. The Congress and the NCP bagged 42 and 41 seats, respectively.

Both the Congress and NCP have been badly hit by exodus. Senior NCP leader Udayanraje Bhosale, a descendant of warrior king Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, quit his Lok Sabha membership to join the BJP.  The development has sent shock waves in the NCP and Congress circles. Urmila Matondkar may have been a newcomer, but her abrupt exit and loyalist Kripa Shankar Singh leaving the Congress have reduced the Congress to a headless party. There is constant speculation (without much substance, though) that top leaders like  Milind Deora may do something “unthinkable”.   

On the caste matrix, the Congress move to accommodate the Marathas, a dominant group that has been making the NCP and the Congress, is becoming shaky. In the Prithviraj Chavan government of the Congress-NCP in 2014, 70 per cent of the NCP quota (17) and 60 per cent of the INC quota (15) were filled with Marathas as ministers. In terms of numbers, this was grossly imbalanced. The Maratha vote share in Maharashtra is around 24-28 per cent while Muslims are eight per cent, Brahmins three per cent, other upper castes seven per cent, Dalits 10 per cent and OBCs around 45 per cent. In other words, 23 out of 34 ministerial berths were held by Marathas when the Congress and NCP were in power in the state.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls saw Asaduddin Owaisi and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi getting a sizeable number of votes. But so far, Congress’ talks with the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana and Samajwadi Party have not resulted in any broad-based alliance. If alliance talks work out, 38 Assembly seats would be allocated to smaller allies, Congress sources indicate, while admitting that time is running out. 

On a larger scale, it has been over 45 days since Sonia Gandhi took over as the interim Congress chief. On the positive side, she seems to be in control and a semblance of normalcy is there. But it is a deceptive calmness. The two spokespersons appointed by her are young dynasts —  Anshul Meira Kumar and Sharmishtha Mukherjee. They are not a patch on Meira Kumar or Pranab Mukherjee. With the party continuing its boycott of TV news channel debates, such appointments are meaningless. Many young dynasts like Deora, Jitin Prasada and Jyotiraditya Scindia continue to be restless. 

After the poll verdict on October 24, BJP-NDA circles have a sense of anticipation to celebrate Diwali in a grand way, even as the Congress is bracing itself for another round of despondency and uncertainty.