It’s Beijing versus Tibet over Dalai Lama’s successor

The issue of the Dalai Lama has been attracting increased attention in recent months. The release of the Dalai Lama's new book titled 'Voice for the Voiceless: Over Seven Decades of Struggle with China for My Land and My People' on March 9 triggered a tough response from China. In the book, the XIVth Dalai Lama is categorical that the next Dalai Lama, his reincarnation, will be born in the "free world".

With this, the XIVth Dalai Lama dispelled speculation as to whether the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue and simultaneously made clear that Beijing will have no role in his reincarnation.

To an extent, this will assuage concerns of many in the Tibetan community in India and abroad, who, conscious of the XIVth Dalai Lama's advancing age, are concerned about whether the succession will be smooth.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted promptly and said: "The Dalai Lama is a political exile who is engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the cloak of religion....On the Tibet issue, China's position is consistent and clear."

Referring to the Chinese government's 'Regulations on Religious Affairs and Measures on the Management of the Reincarnation of Living Buddhas', it said: "The reincarnation of Living Buddhas including the Dalai Lama must comply with Chinese laws and regulations as well as religious rituals and historical conventions, and follow the process that consists of search and identification in China, lot-drawing from a golden urn, and central government approval."

This is a crucial time for the Tibetan community in China and abroad. There is a widespread feeling among the Tibetan diaspora that China will create problems, including attempts to fragment the Tibetan community in exile.

Questions in the minds of the majority of Tibetans and many others centre on the institution of the Dalai Lama and the future of the Tibetan people, who venerate the Dalai Lama as the patron saint of Tibet and living reincarnation of Avlokteswara.

The three main questions are: Whether the XIVth Dalai Lama will reincarnate and, if so, where; whether he will make a clear break from tradition and choose to be reincarnated as someone other than a Tibetan or as a woman; whether he will select a suitable young lama as his emanation; and whether he will discontinue the tradition of the Dalai Lama and dissolve the institution. Each of these decisions will have repercussions.

There are reports that Tibetans, at least in India, intend to write to the Dalai Lama over the next few months, pleading that he announce plans for his succession soon. They feel that an early announcement will give time for preparations for the succession, regardless of the mode the Dalai Lama chooses.

It will also facilitate the recording of clear-cut directions on the method to be followed and procedure for selecting the young reincarnated Dalai Lama.

This will be important to prevent China from introducing complications in the process and putting up a rival, or attempting to prevent the exiled Tibetan community from selecting the reincarnation.

China's effort will, of course, be to impose their choice of reincarnation on the Tibetans inside China and on the wider exiled Tibetan community.

The Chinese have already done this with Gyaltsen Norbu, who they nominated as the XIth Panchen Lama. A lot will depend on where the reincarnation is found.

Meanwhile, in the hope of getting the Dalai Lama back to China before he pronounces his final decision on his reincarnation, the Chinese have resumed using psychological methods and are urging the Dalai Lama to return and spend his final days in comfort at home. They point to the ancient Chinese practice of returning to one's native land to end the days in comfort.

In July 2024, there was a contact between Chinese and Tibetan officials in Kathmandu. Commenting on the death of the Dalai Lama's elder brother Gyalo Thondup, who died in Kalimpong in February 2025 and was very close to him and had previously acted as his unofficial envoy in talks with Chinese officials, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on March 10 that China is open to talks about the future of the Dalai Lama so long as he abandons his position of splitting the 'motherland'.

Unconfirmed indicators suggest that the Chinese communist authorities may be uncertain about the loyalties of Gyaltsen Norbu, the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders repeatedly urge him to strengthen his political beliefs.

For instance, during a meeting with Gyaltsen Norbu in Beijing on February 13, Politburo member and minister of the CCP CC's United Front Work Department Shi Taifeng affirmed Gyaltsen Norbu's "achievements" in the past year. Further, he hoped that he would earnestly study Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, improve his political literacy and Buddhist scholarship and always maintain high consistency with the Party Central Committee, with Xi Jinping at its core in terms of thought, politics and action.

Meanwhile, the decision by the Trump administration to revoke all grants, including the funding of $1,16,00,000 to the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), at this time has caused a degree of consternation in the community. It is to be seen whether it is restored after a three-month review. The Tibet Resolve Act, unanimously passed in 2024, could be a factor favouring the restoration of the grant to the Tibetans.

It would be a definite lever in the hands of the US to pressure the Chinese, but if not restored, it could be used to negotiate and compromise with the Chinese.