Look to the Northeast

DOWN the ages, India has been the target of countless invasions. It was an old civilisation with fabled riches, and kingdoms from Central Asia, Iran, Greece, etc. were forever trying to invade and loot India. The Ghoris, the Ghaznavis, the Abdalis, the Mughals… they came through the Northwest, the Khyber Pass or through Iran and present-day Pakistan. They looted, desecrated, massacred and in general laid waste the land that was full of riches but unable to defend itself.

The Mughals went a step further and put down their roots here and ruled for centuries. However, our southern states and kingdoms, thanks to their remoteness, did not suffer these invasions, nor did any come from the sea for a long time. They carried on trade with the Near and Far East; what that trade eventually brought with it was a far more deadly invader in the form of the Europeans.

The northeastern kingdoms of old (Ahom, Meitei, Kachari, Tripuri, etc.) were for long in a constant state of conflict and unrest among themselves. These ancient fault lines were accentuated by the British and the classification they imposed. Added to this was the war and conflict with the Burmese kingdom.

It is the Northeast today which I would like to focus on for it is in this relatively remote corner of the Indian sub-continent that discontent grows which, if not contained, will become a source of major instability in the region. Nature abhors a vacuum and it is even more so when it comes to filling one of power and authority. What appears as a bushfire today when fanned by the ‘elements’ can become an uncontrollable blaze that could suck in vast resources and leave us weakened. It was this weakness that brought in invaders for centuries.

Today, the South is still safe except for rampant smuggling across the seas. We have the Coast Guard and the Navy to take care of this problem. The North and the Northwest have the continuing challenge of Pakistan across the Line of Control and China in Ladakh. Here the battle lines are old, and the people and our defence forces are used to the ebb and flow of the troubling tides of the invaders and infiltrators. Not to say that it isn’t a dynamically evolving challenge, but one that perhaps over time has been constant in its presence.

Coming to the Northeast, we must recognise the urgent and imminent danger of what we are likely to face on this front. For here today we have an unstable Myanmar as a neighbour, along with Bangladesh, an erstwhile friend but now very hostile to us. Regular statements are being given by senior ministers of the Bangladesh government for the need to isolate the northeastern states in India by fuelling insurgency and taking China’s assistance.

Pakistan, with the covert help of the Chinese, is with them and providing men, material and moral support. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir has no qualms about voicing his ill will towards India and his desire for Kashmir. The minorities are under severe repression in Bangladesh and targeted killings are going on. The persistent looming presence of the Chinese Dragon is a threat which increases by the day.

Pentagon reports indicate that Arunachal Pradesh is an area of core interest for China, just like Taiwan. The Chinese have been rapidly expanding their military facilities across the Arunachal border, including forward-area airbases and hangars. Villages have also been set up in the area. Do remember that we are eyeballed with the Chinese in the Ladakh region. China is continuously engaged in the process of locating areas where forward bases can be established.

In the meantime, there have been reports of various ULFA elements moving base from China to Bangladesh and teaming up with other such forces. These elements would also encourage the remnants of such movements in West Bengal, Assam, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura. We already have internal problems in the states which have aggravated in recent years.

For instance, Manipur has been torn apart due to the historical differences between the Meiteis and the hill tribes — Kukis, Nagas, etc. These hill tribes are also spread out in Mizoram, Meghalaya and Nagaland.

There is incessant violence in Manipur and a huge presence of the Army, paramilitary forces and the police. This problem needs to be resolved, and the forces should be given a clear plan of action. There are refugee camps in Mizoram, Meghalaya and Nagaland, indicating sympathy for the displaced tribes.

Adding to the problem is the likelihood of internal insurgencies creeping up again with the active help of Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Myanmar. It should be remembered that these insurgencies earlier had the support of the people. Normal political activity remained suspended in these areas for a long time, and it took decades of efforts by the military, diplomatic and civil administrations to bring these under control.

Political action was made possible due to the joint efforts of these organisations. There are still some retired Army, civilian and police officers who remember many horror stories of those times. Much blood has already flowed over the decades — blood of our security personnel and our people living in these states. Let us now bring all our resources of the polity and civil society to bear on this problem lest we have to again take resort to arms. Let us face the enemy resolutely in whatever way is deemed fit, but let us not allow it to build on its mischievous designs.

The linking of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China is a fact and not a figment of the imagination. If not checked now, this will link up with the rebel forces and the situation will become even worse. Let us also remember that the US today pursues its own strategy — whether our interests align or not is of no consequence to the Americans. The time to act is now. Are we willing to recognise the challenge and meet it four-square? As Shakespeare wrote, “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune…”